A pullback is finally underway and with this continuing to be a bear market rally until proven otherwise, high selectivity at low risk spots with tight stops will be key. Volume is remaining light during this pullback but breadth today was quite terrible, if volume picks up to the downside this could move from a pullback to a sell off quite quickly. To me the best looking pullbacks are in some specific commodity names, where volume has remained light and we are retracing to support levels. Many of these looked good to take today but I wanted to see tomorrows 1st hour because I think it might be indicative of perhaps the next week's trade.
Here is my list with support levels where I would be looking to take positions just above and be cutting should they be taken out with volume picking up. Remain selective and respect your stops!
Protecting capital is rule number! Gains are secondary, especially in a bear market. If you feel an edge disappearing, trust your gut, take the stop and wait for the next spot.
PCU - 16, 15
WFR - 16, 15.20
SOL -1234 setting up towards 3
X - 20, 17.5
CLF - 15, 14
CMC - 10.5, 9.5
SU - 21
NOV - 28
PBR - 28.5
WLT - 20 ish
ANR - 16, 15 ish
JAX
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17 comments:
PCU : Is because the stock closed nearly under the 13dma you want to think about a short ?
Closed at 17 so I guess 15-16ish is your bottom line and you will sort if reached ?
Or at 16 you take position and 15 you get out ?
The fastline is over the slow signal, so there is no hurry yet ?
WFR : With a increase in volume cople days ago and the action who seem to go up compared to the 13dma/50dma + trending signal seem to point out an uptrend.
So what is wrong with my analyse if you say you think about shorting if its goes down near 15,2 - 16 ?
SOL - Big volume increase and go up the 13/50 dma and the 1234 pattern (weakness after some up) so is it a stock we should take a look at it and take position since it could gain in value ?
X - Breaking up 13 dma on high volume and the signal with the MACD and MACD Histo mean we can expect an uptrend ?
Dont want to bother you much, you posted my tought of some of your choices to check out with you if I understand well the analyse and the way you work !
Waiting for reply Mr Jax :)
Oh, and what do you think about taking a 1 month subscription to Shark School ?
Im done with the book (wich was awesome btw)
And what minimum Bankroll should I start with to be fine without getting killed ?
Should I practice before doing something ? (I will assume 100% yes)
All are meant to be longs. PCU is probably less clear cut than the others but I wanted a copper play in there. FCX is obv. the leader in the space but needs a deeper pullback to set up an easy entry. The primary idea behind the list was to provide a list of stocks who have been acting well lately in the commodity space and have seen very light volume dips over the last couple days with price dropping around near support levels. I was trying to put ranges I would look to start initiating a position. A huge part of whether I will take a position or not, is how the overall market it acting, if volume is picking up to the downside on the S&P then I'm not going to jump in.
1234 - one big up day on massive volume followed by 2-3 days of rest. Buy point is through day 3 high on good volume.
Of course I would practice but I think it is completely different with skin in the game versus just paper trades. So I would keep position size very small to start and not worry so much about making big profits.
Can you explain this : if volume is picking up to the downside on the S&P then I'm not going to jump in.
SOL is got good volume action
at 9h30, 10h45, 11h15, 12h00 and 12h30.
Its seem its going up as predicted so im aboard for 8% or my capital at 3.55 / time 12h30 ET
I set my stop loose at 3.25
Is it the way I should work ?
Nice Trade Squishee! Played SOL as well, I bought a little preemptively at 3.3 and then added around the same area you did. I went ahead and took profits into the close for a nice gain. The rest of the list I am still have on watch depending on how the indexes shape up.
Well this is fake money for the moment since I dont have enough experience to put some of my real money in it I think.
Do you have specific website I should take for the sofware ? Ive heard about Etrade
What about taking a subscription for 1 month on Shark Investing ?
Im thinking about ordering some others book or DvD on how make good assement on stock graph, so do you have good suggestions ?
Will you ever think posting a video made by you about explaining a stock graph and the actions we should think about ?
For SOL, how should I determine my self points ?
Btw, show yourself on skype if you want to talk more, I like this thing imo
Yes plan on getting into videos. I have heard sharkinvesting.com is a good site but don't know how much it costs. I use Etrade Pro, it comes free with my etrade account if you make a certain amount of trades. I like the program very much. I also use telechart for all my charts. SOL resistance was at 4.00 and I just took the gain because I was already up alot and didn't want to risk giving up profits on a bad open. I can always rebuy if it breaks through four.
If you aren't using telechart I would look into a subscription to that. It is only 30 bucks a month for the cheap version and you can develop your own scans to search for stocks. There are plenty of videos on the website: www.worden.com.
Todays I tried to make some quick scan with telechart, getting started, so far I looked at near 1500 charts where big volume in last 5 days and action price between min-15.
Here some graph I would like to confirm with you, if you want :
- ADAT : Big volume 4 days ago, followed by 3 small loosing days with low volume. 1234 pattern ?
I would think about taking a position around 0,40 on a big volume positive day.
- AERT : 2 sign off big volumes in lasts days, taking position around 0,30 on a good volume and positive open ?
- AINV : good volume since half the monh and look like an uptrend, taking positon when it pass the 50mda line ?
- ANV : 2 goods volumes days lastly and today less volume but still look like to go up
- ANX - Volume is in the roof
- CDII - Good volume yesterday, taking position if its hold over the 50mda ?
- CEGE - Volume + 1234, tomorrow we take position on a good open + volume ?
- CLRT - Good volume recently + 1234 pattern with a loosing one between day 1 an 3, so if tomorrow its open good we could take position around 2,25 ?
Ive flaged 150 ones and need to look back at them, but I would like to know what you think about those I submited to you.
Thanks
Phil
P.S. Can I trade with Etrade if im from Canada ?
ADAT - nice pattern but too thinly traded for me
AERT - Same
AINV volume declining as it reaches 50 dma -looks more like a short - Pass
ANV - running into Sept Resistance - needs a few days of rest, keep it on radar for 1234 or bull flag type pattern
ANX - biotech is mostly news driven, where my edge begins to disappear. Also I would avoid pennies if you are just starting out. Much less predictable. I bet none of those sharks trade those.
CEGE - same as ANX, good pattern but for me, you need to understand the fundamentals of what is driving the initial spike. Was it short covering? Or did something about the stock fundamentally change.
CDII - needs to base over 50 dma. and prove itself
CLRT- Nice pattern prob needs another day or two to tighten up. buy through 2.33 on big volume. But still thinner than I like to trade. I would prob. put a min Avg. vol. criteria into your scan. Let me know if you need help with those. Your scans are yielding results that are too big.
Another thing, are you on speed or something? I thought I worked hard but damn every time I try to work on a post I got a message. No worries though, fire away.
Im out of Red Bull but espresso do the job.. dont forget I also play poker so^^
Well in fact im trying to learn as much as I can because I dont know a shit so that why im posting here, since you are interessting and also answering my questions
I think in this area I need much more some people who do well and fulltime in it so its mostly better than hit a wall by trying and not know where I stand.
Pass on Skype if you want to talk about it, but I warm you, need patience because im gonna ask ask ask...
Colm already know the experience.
Meanwhile, give me some homework or quiz :)
Can we take another look at LZR? With such an extreme drop off does that make it a bit undervalued and a decent look for a buy if u can get it under 7?
Hey, didnt looked during the day but here some update :
ADAT : Not good
AERT : Even if penny look at the volume and the big up. open at 0,32 and is at 0,44 atm.
What are we doing with this one ?
AINV : Broke up the 50mda line and continu to move up.
Do we take ? And plan to short around 8,00 next resistance line ?
ANV : Less volume and seem to stabilize, what should I do ? wait for a 1234 pattern ? Wait for a bulish pattern = what do you mean ?
ANX : 2nd day of big volume and action going down, not taking it for sure
CEGE : Not interessting
CDII : Keeping an eye on it , need to go pass 50mda ?
CLRT : Keeping an eye on it, good volume on a goos start and I would buy aroud 2,33 as you said.
I know you told me some of those stuff I should avoid (biotech, pennie) but I just want to practice my follow up, of these stock.
When do we have a forum about this on your site ? :)
Brad, I'm sure Jax will come in and clean up this whole LZR situation for you in a bit but the truth is LZR is probably gonna need a little time. He mentioned to me if it dropped around 5.5 it might be a good buy for a quick bounce but falling that low isn't all that likely anyway. Anyway, it's gonna take some time for this chart to setup again in my opinion, there's no reason to add to the position unless it sees under 6 but as far as a long-term position, this is still a solid position.
Squishee, word of advice: If you keep posting 8+ stocks everyday I doubt you're going to get a response everyday because there is no way Jax has time for it all. I would advise you to start watching stocks everyday and do what you're doing, but try to keep your posts down to asking about 2-3 that you think might be the best stocks available on your scans. You need to start trying to learn to be selective as it is. It's part of trading. Good luck.
P.S. Me and Jax have plans to take care of the messageboard situation in the near future.
Got to agree with Colms on LZR. Basically in prove me mode, needs to continue to hold its 50 dma and build a base. Also, in essence LZR is a recession type play, a growth stock in a recessionary environment. With the market rallying off monthly home sales figures, LZR isn't where traders are rushing to put there money. The chart obviously says this now. And the indicators were there early on when it continued to have bad closes when it was attempting to break out.
Squishee those stocks don't really interest me at this time. Some are too thin for me to trade just based on a pattern. LZR is thin but it is backed by strong fundamentals. Others like the gold play looks good but I think we missed the meat of the move there and don't like the R/R here.
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