Tuesday, February 17, 2009

USB chart... Post for my brother

A look at USB's chart. From a fundamental perspective, I personally don't want to own any bank that its taking TARP money because it doesn't seem like a good R/R to own any bank that has the potential to be nationalized or has loans with basically unknown terms. But my brother wanted me to break down the chart for him and I figure it might be a worthwhile exercise.







In conclusion, I don't see an entry point that offers a good R/R. It could very well bounce and if you have the talent for catching falling knifes, on the way to turning in your application to join the circus, maybe you can pick up some shares of USB. If you somehow have insider information and truly believe in this stocks fundamentals, I still wouldn't be a buyer here. The stock is only worth what the current holders and buyers think it is worth. Right now all I see is PANIC and PAIN. That can go on alot longer than most will think so I would wait for the stock to develop a new base and be patient for an opportunity to arise that you can prudently INVEST (not gamble) your money where the R/R is around 3:1 in your favor with a clearly defined stop loss point.

Update: One more thing, if there is some kind of news related bounce as in the case of the "bad bank" scenario I would be looking for intraday green volume bars that are like the ones seen yesterday and I would keep a stop at day low for at least the first trading day. If there is a gap I would either adhere to the first hour rule or see if it fills the gap and see how it acts. Check the past posts on the bottom right for a few ways on how to play a gap.

JAX

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