Solars hit Targets...Treading Lightly into Tomorrow's Job Report

10:00 am:
I bought some JASO and YGE on the open as they both opened at the bottom end of the ranges I posted. They immediately rebounded and are up 6-10%. I said I planned to hold these positions for a few day period but I am going to lock half of each before Obama's speech because I don't want to lose these quick profits in a sell the news reaction. I will see how they act after the initial reaction to the speech to possibly reload.

UPDATE 10:45 am: As expected there was an initial sell the news reaction on the solars. They seem to be stabilizing and I am just watching right now. Both YGE and JASO are set to have big volume. If they can get a good close, they could be set to run, especially if oil bounces. I will post another update if I add back shares. I doubt I will ahead of tomorrow unless I plan to flip them today. Tentative stop at day low which is basically my entry point.

I am treading lightly today. I don't want to have too much invested before the big jobs number tomorrow. Oil is still flirting with $40 and the commodity list is mixed with not many movers other than solars and shippers. Shippers hammered hard off the open, similar to solars but entry points remain tough there with only one down day off big moves. I wouldn't chase anything there as I doubt they can break out, hopefully they will chop around for a few days and offer a good entry. But I would keep in mind that the other commodity plays have followed the shippers and I continue to work in search for the best entry points.

The S&P dipped below 900 earlier but is still holding that level. A move below the 50 dma (890ish) on big volume then I would move back to all cash and hold off from making any new buys (even if they enter our ranges) until we stabilize. The next support level is not until 870 and I fear panic could enter the market if we have an awful jobs report and break support on the same day. When we started this uptrend from the November low, market players began to buy the bad news. A big turning point in the rally came when we had the worst job report in decades and the bad news was still bought. Review my Dec 6th post "Bulls Show a Little Horn" to get a feel why I think the report tomorrow is so important.

Since then we have had seasonality kick in and enjoyed a decent rally and racked up some big gains. We also have had some better than expected weekly unemployment numbers (not usual market movers) because of seasonal hiring that have helped keep the market upbeat. Tomorrow's reaction to the report could drive the market direction over the next few months. If the number is worse than expected we could sell off and break support which could lead to panic or many players just deciding to pull out money and wait for a better opportunity. At the same time, the news could be bad and market players could again buy it and we could remain in a short term uptrend, after all the stock market always bottoms months before the actual economy. If the number is better than expected (not likely) we will have an immediate positive reaction that should bring more money off the side lines. This should lead to a rally that has legs at least until the next month's report or other negative news like worse than expected earnings from major U.S. companies.

So I will continue to develop our long list and also have a few good shorts in mind should the market react poorly to the jobs report.

1:10 P.M. DRYS is about to break day high as the market picks up a little strength. In GNK here for a quick day trade at 17.40.

3:30 P.M. Flipped GNK at 18.2. It couldn't get through day high at 18.4 and I don't want to hold it going into the jobs report. I also took more profits on JASO and YGE near into the close and only hold trackers in JASO at 4.1 and YGE at 6.05.

JAX