Monday, December 1, 2008

Lower Open, Oil Down Big...Financials should pullback like I have been saying but for how long? Watch Volume.

Looks like we are set for a much lower open, off about 200 points on the DOW. Oil is getting hammered down nearly four bucks as a write and our shorts in that sector from Friday look to work perfectly. Be sure to move up your stops and lock in gains as they come in. I will be trading around these positions pretty quickly to make sure I lock in gains.

I will also be looking for opportunities to exit out of SKF and EEV on strength. EEV broke through 75 on Wednesday but I didn't cut it because it was holiday trading and I didn't put much weight into the action. Friday saw an extremely light volume bounce and even though it was a half day, this one is starting to look like it is headed lower very soon. The change in the calendar might lead to this as I don't want to get caught wrong footed in an Santa Claus rally. I'm pretty sure we will get a bounce over the next day or two and I am hoping for a bounce to $85 where it might kiss this trading range good-bye. SKF and FAZ looks basically the same to me. I'm setting a sell point for FAZ at around $85 but if strong downward volume hits I will cut the stock quickly. SKF closed below its 50 dma on Friday and I am just going to set a trailing stop below Friday's low and let it run.

If what I think will occur, UYG and other select financials might offer some good pullbacks to get long. A light volume pullback to $4 on UYG would offer up a nice low risk opportunity.

FYI: I saved some of my posts on what I look for in a day trade, and how to play a gap on the bottom right.

Also to be clear, I would not be buying DGP on weakness only on strength. If it falls out of that lower range I would void the trade and give it more time to set up.

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