Tuesday, November 11, 2008

Letting the mud dry to dirt

"Do you have patience to wait til your mud settles and the water is clear?
Can you remain unmoving til the right action arises by itself?"

Lao Tzu
Tao Te Ching

The troops are trying to make a move here a hour and a half before the close. I'm going to continue to be a spectator. It is too late to short imo unless you are day trading with a hour or two time frame. Volume is extremely light due to the holiday so maybe they think they are getting these stocks at prices they won't see again. I'm thinking that is very doubtful and expect fully that we will retest the lows of our trading range. If they hold I will then begin to scoop up these bargains with my capital remaining near all time highs. I had some excellent trades a few weeks back and expect these opportunities to come to fruition very soon. But we need to protect our capital so that we are not trying to erase losses and instead continuing to add on the gains. Maybe we rally from here and I will shift mindsets quickly if the action leads me to believe so. But I can't form any opinion based on today's action other than 900 on the S&P is not going to provide much support and we look to test those support lines once again. I wouldn't be surprised if this rally attempt is met with further selling and we close near lows.

Oil has broken down out of it's trading range and I would be very patient before looking to play any commodity names. Look at the action in DRYS. The stock continues to be slaughtered today on very strong volume that might end up being the strongest all year. Other names in the sector are seeing much lighter volume but I'm curious if they see more selling action after the holiday. Let's see how we close. If we close higher from the current levels, it will be a minor positive but there is still a long way to go.

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