JAX OF ALL TRADES

ColmsUM.com

2009-07-01T18:51:00.002-05:00

I have recently signed on to post at ColmsUM.com and will be posting there starting July 1st. So check it out!

I haven't really made up my mind what to do with this site yet, but I will post details when they are available.

JAX

FIT didn't trigger, FAZ grabbed a starter

2009-05-20T23:15:00.003-05:00

The FIT trade didn't trigger and I will continue to watch but remain cautious there for now. I did however grab a starter in FAZ at 4.7 which I got pretty lucky with my timing. I took it as the SPY neared 93 and saw many of the banks began to rollover.

I will look to add if the S&P fails to hold its 20 dma/uptrending bottom line of its channel which I have drawn here:

Reformat over the next month

2009-05-19T20:41:00.003-05:00

Alright guys, I am extremely sorry my posts have been extremely sparse over the past couple weeks. I am getting married in 10 days and I have been very pressed for time getting content posted with all the final preparations that need to be made and trading during the day. Extremely stressful times for me. Anyway, I think I have come up with a way to continue to post some ideas while I am strapped for time.

For the next month or two I am going to try to post my top one or two ideas for the coming trading day/s with a chart explaining what I am seeing. This is really the only way I will be able to do justice to my picks and continue to update the positions. I haven't been posting picks because I knew I wouldn't have time to do the updates on the positions that I customarily do. So the pick for the day won't constitute my entire activity for the day but still provide opportunities for my followers to profit. As always your feedback is appreciated.

Here is the first:

Another idea I continue to watch entry for is FAZ. I continue to believe the overall market is set for a correction, but like I have said before, these bear market bounces can go on for much longer than you can comprehend, especially with so much money still on the sidelines with the decimation of the market over the last couple years. Therefore, it is important to play what is front in you. What the charts are telling you even though it can often defy logic. But with most of the earnings already out, the market extremely overbought in the short term, and seemingly little future news flow left to support the market higher, I think most traders are looking for a pullback. Bottom line numbers have improved in many of these names but top line numbers have failed to improve and should raise caution moving forward. FAX is extremely hard to trade, especially when trying to hold for a time period longer than a day or two. You can almost not get anything out of analyzing the individual chart's resistance and support levels. So instead I am keeping an eye on long term resistance levels in XLF at $13.08ish and SPY at $93.22 for a possible entry. I am going to keep position size small and look for a longer term move. I will be looking to buy June calls at these resistance levels as well.

JAX

Response to an e-mail from Squishee, (deleted personal data) thought it might be able to help some others

2009-05-13T19:28:00.003-05:00

Man, I thought I told you to take it extremely slow and with that account size you should be looking for perfect setups and be making only a few trades a week. You look like you are doing that in a day. There are not that many PERFECT setups everyday. I haven't been posting much because I don't see anything that interest me, or a good risk/reward for me at these levels. I said last week, I think in a comment to you, that we are so extended to the upside I don't see good risk/reward on longs so I move to the sidelines. I really have only had one good trade this week with COIN. I tried some other dip buys and got stopped out quickly. I hate hitting stops. They eat capital. When more stops are hitting than successful trades I stop trading. NO matter your style you will not be successful trying to fight the market. Stop FORCING things... How long did it take you to make money at poker? Did you really think you would walk right into investments and dominate. Keep the discipline you used while learning there and you will be fine. No offense, but with your account size and the overall market at the peak of a bear-market bounce, you are trading pretty reckless. Learn from it, slow down and you will make it back one painful step at a time. Remember rule number one: capital protection. Been there, it sucks. Now I try to remember rule number one. I forget sometimes and that sick feeling comes back. Take some time and clear your head, maybe don't even trade for a day or two. The market will always be there to trade, the key from here is get your mindset right so that you are not making more mistakes and multiplying the problem. I also think you need to work more on developing a style because you don't seem to have one. You seem to be mixing different styles and trying to force results. Might work during a rally but won't long term.

Exercise: Give me a list of your rules for a trade and your style of trading? What are you looking for, and what characteristics must each trade have before you take it, fundamentals, technicals, time frames, capital allotment, risk/reward calculations, etc? You should also have rules for managing the positions, which will also be impacted by the overall market. You should be adding to and amending the rules as time goes on if you want to really be a good trader. I could tell you all my rules but I am not you, and I can't trade your portfolio for you, and my rules match my style, capital restraints, time frames, etc.
You can get good advice and follow good traders and still not yield good results. Use those resources, but only to help you develop what works for you.

Hope this helps, keep your head up.

JAX

From: deleted
To: Jax Trader
Sent: Wednesday, May 13, 2009 6:13:40 PM
Subject: S.O.S. Jax

Hello Mr Jax,

From my memory, you where getting married in the month of May, maybe its why we dont have news from you on your blog ! If then, enjoy the time !

I don't want to scratch your wedding honeymoon and relax time , so there is no real hurry but im starting to get upset. With fee and bad chase, im down from... deleted account details - lets just say not good, in less than 2 weeks, sure I made mistakes like chasing stocks; but the fee that costed me a little bit more than 600$ total (now its less expensive but still too much so im switching atm)

Here the history of the trades I mades lately, we can see some mistakes like chasing AXL, CPSL, not taking gains when I had them, which turned to tiny profit.

I forgot 1 stop loss from my memory, which turned to a bigger than 1% capital loss.

A big problem was; I was following active swing traders from a forum, but I don't have enough capital according to them to make it profitable.

At least I learned much more the direction I want to : I wanted to make more than the 1,5% interest rate from the actual bank (Ok now its catastrophic) but I hope you will be willing to share some of your time to fix this issue.

Have to stay disciplined and keeping target, but I lost confidence, even with good basics imo.

Thanks for your time in advance

Philippe

also deleted attached account transactions

Classic Bottom Fish - GMXR

2009-05-06T22:46:00.004-05:00

Wednesday Watchlist

2009-05-05T20:41:00.004-05:00

SVVS - through 11.25
F - through 6
MEDX - through 6.65
VCI - through 5
OPLK - through 11.35
SFLY - through 13.25
CRUS - through 4.55
UA - through 25.5

Bulls Remain in charge

2009-05-03T21:21:00.002-05:00

Dips continue to be bought and the bulls were finally able to close us over resistance at 875 on the S&P. Volume has been light which makes me not put too much trust into Friday's close but I will continue to look to play strength until something changes.
Commodities were very hot on Friday with oil, coal, and shippers continuing to see a bid. I am still long many of the names from the list Friday which saw good action.

With many of the bigger names getting overextended I think momentum money will turn to some smaller oils and other small caps.

CPE, SWC, SYNM, DPTR, PLLL, ENT, EXXI, GSX, HDY, CFW, VSR, DAC

Some bars to watch for dips in:

FSIN, COIN, PZG, NGAS

Taking a week off

2009-04-30T19:14:00.003-05:00

Just wanted to let you guys know that I have been working over the past week on expanding the site but will be back posting regularly next week.

I will be playing catchup over the weekend so check back for watchlists and other tidbits and expect a much improved site in the near future.

JAX

Ahh what the hell... here are some quick picks:
-----
A couple of small oils looking ready for big moves if oil can maintain its move through $50.

IVAN & HERO both breaking through recent highs on bigger volume

CPE has consolidated gains off the big bar nicely

I also continue to hold positions in GMXR and TTI
-----
CENX through 4.15 on big volume
----
DRYS closed above resistance on good volume but had earnings after the bell.

OCNF had a bar to watch and closed back over its 50 dma if shippers remain hot

Market stabilized today after the big down move Monday, Time to get back to work.

2009-04-21T21:52:00.002-05:00

ANV is one I really like. This one has the potential to work in a weak or strong market and think it has high risk/reward as we continue into earnings season overbought in the short term and still in a bear market.

Other good patterns to watch:

RFMD IFX HWD PRGN APAC KKD CYD FIZZ DCTH

And one penny:

GWGI

JAX

Boom, Boom, yawn Boom

2009-04-16T22:11:00.003-05:00

ZLC up 25% since mention two days ago
RUTH - still waiting for break
NGAS - up 30% plus
HERO - 30% plus
SOLR - 15% plus
OCNF - up alot here as well but looking to add on good volume tomorrow
CENX - up 10%, through 4.0 and looking to add more

Couple more to watch tomorrow:

PFSW - through 1.30ish on good volume
SB - through 4.05
STSA
NCS

more to come...

The Streak continues...

2009-04-14T21:23:00.005-05:00

GU acted extremely well and looks good for some follow through tomorrow should the market cooperate and FEED continued to power on, I'm all out of the later now. GNA continued to show strength as well and I am still long that one, moving my stop up along the way. I also had a nice trade in EGLE which topped it all off nicely.

However, the close near lows on big volume in the S&P and all around weakness in financials has me very concerned that this might be the first day of a meaningful pullback. The reaction after the first hour of trade might be indicative of the next couple trading sessions, especially if we open much lower and dip buyers are now where to be seen.

Anyway, my number one play for tomorrow is the gold stock ANV which also has a strikingly similar setup to the FEED setup from a day ago. If buyers head for the exits the old safe haven play might attract some interest. ANV looks a good add here, which I did into yesterday's close, and I will be looking to get more aggressive through 6.22ish on good volume. Other gold stocks: NXG, RBY, NSU, THM are also on watch for volume surges.

If the market gets a bid under it I will be keeping an eye on SOL. I like the pullback there, and obvious by the big intraday swings in solar stocks, money is still pouring in and out of the sector.

GGP also has a nice looking pattern if it floats your boat
and
ZLC as well if retail is hot.

Others to keep on your watchlist, looking for a day of rest or dip in most to setup for tomorrow:

SOLR, OCNF, CENX, GNA- I'm still long a small bit of this one
RUTH, NGAS,
HERO - I'm are holding a little position here I bought on the break of two, if gets another day of good volume day it might be good for a quickie.

JizzAX

FEED, GNA nice!

2009-04-13T23:29:00.002-05:00

FEED and GNA both got the action I was expecting and I took some big gains there today. I also had a nice gain in CPSL. I am finishing up taxes but I will try to get back later for some setups tomorrow. Really starting to like the GU setup in a similar vein as FEED. Through 2.50 on good volume and it should see good upside, stop around 2.25.

JAX

Last List Update

2009-04-10T18:25:00.003-05:00

GNA - needs through 4 with volume, no gaps, and should take off.
PCU - been holding this one for a while since 17, sold some at the close Thursday, but still holding a small position
NUE - didn't take
SCHN - sold on Thursday for about 15% gain
CENX - in at 3.0, out at close 3.60 for 20% gain
AKS - in at 8.10, went ahead and locked in at close even though it saw good volume, still looks good for next week
FEED - in at 2.3, looking to add on volume spikes
TC - long from 4.10, still holding, should maintain momentum if market holds up
UYG - in at 2.75 on Wed. sold half for 27% gain on Thursday, WFC earnings should continue to carry this sector without weak earnings reports from other financials
SID - good looking pattern but didn't take, needs a dip to interest me, keep on watch
X - didn't take
PLD - news driven volatility no position
SOLR - up 20% since buy 2 days ago, I've taken my gains here as light volume wasn't too inspiring and R ahead

I have a bunch of small chems, oils, and small china plays on watch for next week and will post the list over the weekend. Had PPO on watch for Wednesday but missed my entry so didn't post. Thursday it closed up over 27% after being up 8% on Wednesday. Notice the pattern there, that is the same pattern I have identified in the watchlist and what is working right now when you time it with the overall market which has been in buy the dip mode over the last month.

JAX

A little dip going, when will dip buyers show up?

2009-04-07T21:14:00.004-05:00

A few pullbacks I am liking in individual names include:

GNA
PCU
NUE
SCHN
CENX
AKS
FEED
TC
UYG
SID
X
PLD
SOLR

I will be looking for further light volume weakness to get aggressive around individual support levels.

JAX

Jobs Report Tomorrow

2009-04-02T18:36:00.002-05:00

The last commodities list worked well for several of the names such as X, NOV, and the 1234 on SOL. Most did not reach the prime low risk spots I mentioned but most still offered a good spot to start picking up shares. I've taken gains as a lot of the stocks are losing steam as volume dries up. PCU is one in which I have maintained a decent size position in as it saw massive volume as copper prices continue to strengthen. I also initiated a position in TGB another copper play through 1.33. That one will be one to keep on the radar as well. GNA is a steel play that has seemed to bottom in a similar way to TCK a few weeks ago. I will be looking for a dip to pick up shares there. More later...

JAX

Finally a meaningful pullback...

2009-03-30T20:40:00.002-05:00

A pullback is finally underway and with this continuing to be a bear market rally until proven otherwise, high selectivity at low risk spots with tight stops will be key. Volume is remaining light during this pullback but breadth today was quite terrible, if volume picks up to the downside this could move from a pullback to a sell off quite quickly. To me the best looking pullbacks are in some specific commodity names, where volume has remained light and we are retracing to support levels. Many of these looked good to take today but I wanted to see tomorrows 1st hour because I think it might be indicative of perhaps the next week's trade.

Here is my list with support levels where I would be looking to take positions just above and be cutting should they be taken out with volume picking up. Remain selective and respect your stops!

Protecting capital is rule number! Gains are secondary, especially in a bear market. If you feel an edge disappearing, trust your gut, take the stop and wait for the next spot.

PCU - 16, 15

WFR - 16, 15.20
SOL -1234 setting up towards 3

X - 20, 17.5
CLF - 15, 14
CMC - 10.5, 9.5

SU - 21
NOV - 28
PBR - 28.5

WLT - 20 ish
ANR - 16, 15 ish

JAX

Playing catch up.

2009-03-26T21:30:00.004-05:00

Under performed early in the month, playing big time catch up this week, and continue to outperform big on the year. I sold some MDR, FEED, and LZR even though the charts remain strong and seem to be setting up for a bigger move. The might just need a little more time and I am fine with adding back on a break and even happier buying back my shares on light volume weakness that holds the pattern.

Here is the LZR chart for Squishee:

FEED me.

2009-03-24T23:03:00.003-05:00

The FEED 1234 pattern worked to perfection and my preemptive buys made it very profitable. I have locked in a large part of the gain as it surged over 20% on the day but am holding on to a piece as I think this one might still have room to run off the strong earnings report last week.

Congrats to those who caught the gain. I'm still trading around positions in the same stocks mentioned yesterday. Stay open and play what is in front of you.

JAX

ARRGGGHH...........

2009-03-23T18:59:00.005-05:00

Well obviously the couple of scenarios I was hoping for just isn't going to happen. The averages had a big day moving close to 6% across the board. But volume was very light as the move was completely news driven based on the details of the continued bank bailout and an uptick in February home sale numbers.

Very frustrating for me because I have underperformed this month but it is important to keep in mind that the people that have had a good month are the same people that were have been demolished over the last year and a half chasing strength. I am still outperforming the indexes by close to 40% over just the last three months and I am not going to get performance anxiety when there is no good R/R entries. Eventually these people will get burned again and we will continue to maintain discipline and profit. I have spoken with many other traders today who consistently out perform the indexes as I do and they are feeling the same frustration I am.

Just about everything from the commodity list gaped higher on declining volume and I am still looking for dips with the idea of averaging in at first lines of support and getting aggressive at their main support. Of course I will continue to keep the overall market as my primary guide and individual stock news.

The breakout list worked great but volume again was not very strong so I flipped the ones I took.

I am still building short lists but with the market remaining so news driven and with so much cash still on the side lines is very hard to dive in.

I am a little frustrated right now, so I am going to take the night away from the scans and just start fresh tomorrow and play what is in front of me other than the commodity lists already built.

I am long a few select stocks from buys on Friday such as MDR which I bought a small position at 13.20 on Friday which I will add on light volume dips. FEED is setting up for the 1234 tomm. I mentioned yesterday and I have already started a position there. I continue to have a pretty big position in LZR which I have added on dips over the past week and am already up a pretty good amount. This is truly one of the few growth stocks in this economy and remains in an uptrend. It doesn't get much attention when the overall market is strong but should it get through $9 it should see $10 easily and through 10 to 10.15 has no resistance. If you don't have a position here yet. I would look to buy on dips around $8 and be prepared on a break through $9. Keep you position size in check however, as the stock is extremely thin.

JAX

2009-03-22T21:57:00.003-05:00

The indexes are in the midst of a pullback after a powerful two week move. Right now the action remains constructive and will hopefully lead to further consolidation setting up some charts for good R/R long entries and propel us through the 50 dma. There are basically two or three scenarios that I would see as bullish setups and offer easy entry points for index trades. The first would be a few days of tight conolidation that held the 750 area where volume could continue to remain high as those who were lucky enough to hit the bottom or buy the rally early on, take profits, and more investors look to put capital to work. The second would be successive days of lighthter and ligher volume fades that hold the 715 to 725 area. But with how difficult the market has been of late it will unlikely be this clear cut. For now I think patience is the key.

Commodities have been trading sideways since November building long bases. I think this is probably the best area to begin looking for pullbacks near the bottom of their bases (placing stops just below). If we are going to continue to rally after consolidation, some sector rotation will have to take place away from the financials, retail, and select tech in order to sustain the rally. I think commodities are a likely candidate to see and influx of investment as inflation will become a bigger and bigger issue down the line as the goverment continues to essentially print money in order to provide funds to banks and insurance companies.

Some of the best looking volume patterns I have seen in individual names are:

Steel
RIO - 13 1st line, 12 - load
SID - 13.2 ", 12 "
CMC - 9.5
X - 17.5
CLF - 11.5

Copper
FCX - 34 ish
PCU - 15

INFRA
SGR - 26.5
MDR - 13 ish

Coal
WLT - 20ish first line, 16 load
ANR - 17ish ", 15 "
MEE - 10 ish

Golds - might offer the best entry in the short temr as the indexes continue to pullback. These could be bought on strength through resistance levels but might offer better R/R on a dip with the overall market
GRS, AUY, JAG, VGZ

Some other good looking patterns that are set up for primarlily break outs are:
SWHC - buypoint through 5.8 on good volume
RGR - through 11
STEC - 1234 setup for tomorrow buy might offer better R/R on a dip to 7.15 with a stop under 7 should it try to fill the gap from earnings
FEED - Support at 1.8, 1234 poss. for Tues, Look for a dip aruond 2 on light volume
LZR - should explode through 9 on big volume

More to watch:
PEGA, ASGR, HWD, BCS, SUSS, SIGM

JAX

My Sincere Apologies to the Immortal Dikembe Mutombo

2009-03-17T21:22:00.003-05:00

Olajuwon is somewhere shaking his finger

2009-03-16T19:04:00.004-05:00

Finally hit the 775 level and in predictable fashion the indexes reversed hard and closed on lows. About any short would have worked and I took a little FAZ in the 36 area when the indexes approached resistance. I already flipped most of it and I will be watching the how the bulls act in the first hour to consider a reload.

March Low

2009-03-12T21:31:00.008-05:00

If we do continue to rally, I will be watching the gun stocks SWHC and RGR for some quick trades as they are just about to break through resistance and should have momentum into tomorrow off of SWHC earnings. I also still like the HGG, ARST, and COGO setups but they might have to wait until next week if the market turns sour. Here is a look at the HGG setup and I am looking for a similar trade in ARST and COGO:

If we begin to close in on the 775 level and volume is light I will shift my attention to start looking to initiate some shorts in the afternoon.

UPDATE 3/13/08 8:13AM: Scratch the FWLT short. It got a Goldman upgrade this morning and will now probably outperform the overall market.

JAX

Quick List for Today

2009-03-12T08:37:00.001-05:00

LZR was a big success from the last list.

Here is a quick one from my scans (Sorry short on time or I would post more explanation):

RARING TO GO -> Breakouts that need Volume
SWHC - be careful, earnings after the bell
RGR - same sector could be impacted by SWHC
STAR
STSI
PEGA
HGG
DLM
ARST

OFF BOTTOM -> Stocks that look to be putting in a bottoming pattern or have a good volume pattern near support. Most will likely need a green market to rebound but could see a nice pop if overall market or sector is working in your favor.
TC
TCK
GGB
CBI
CX
PXP
PQ
GWR
PCU
MEE

JAX - buy this stock NOW! OOPS! this is a real stock, jk on the J.Alexander's.

UPDATE 2:25 PM: Good bounces in alot of the stocks from the watchlist. I'm booking the gains here pretty much across the board as the indexes are bouncing right into overhead resistance at 750 and I don't want to hold through earnings in Smith & Wesson.

Market Finally gets a Squeeze

2009-03-10T22:01:00.002-05:00

Well obviously the gold plays were nixed before the trading day got underway off of Citigroup news that they were actually profitable for the first two months of the year. Whoopty freaking doo! How could they not be with spreads at all-time high times, getting bailout after bailout from the government, and writing off billions in losses in the previous quarters? Still... it might give us a trade-able low after being bored to tears for the last couple weeks. Actually I have felt under the weather the last couple of days and am a bit unprepared in terms of watchlists and chart setups but I am hoping I will feel better in the morning and able to make a more detailed lists. Either way I doubt I will be making too many big moves before we develop a first hour trading range tomorrow and see if there is more news out that will drive the market.

The ball is in the bulls court for and hopefully some follow through will set up some charts.

Here is a quick list of charts I like in the Healthcare and TECH sectors, sorry there isn't a whole lot of detail but hopefully I will be able to add to it in the morning:

TECH
TSYS, VISN, COGO, SIGM, SWKS, CSTR

Healthcare/Biotech
LCI, LZR, OPTR, SQNM

JAX

Gold Beginning to Look Low Risk Again

2009-03-09T20:24:00.006-05:00

Gold Uptrend Watchlist

GRS, AUY, KRY, IAG, BVN, THM, ANV, JAG, EGO, CGR, RIC, NXG, AGT, SA, VGZ, AU, LIHR, RBY, NSU

IAG JAG CGR RIC RBY are my favorite setups on a pure chart basis but have never traded any of these before besides RIC.

Market a giant bore

2009-03-05T12:20:00.002-06:00

I guess that was probably obvious by drawing a penis on the S&P but just wanted to let you guys know I am still here. Just don't see anything to do right now. My only position is LZR. I mentioned this one a few weeks back and said I was planning on buying a token position before earnings and then add to it if the report was indeed as good as I thought it would be. I called the CFO and he told me earnings would be second week of March but obviously the prick lied because earnings were yesterday. So I wasn't able to get a position before earnings but did grab some shares at 5.9 yesterday morning which I added to a couple times and have my cost basis at 6.25. Should have posted it yesterday but truly it is has a lot more risk than I usually trade but also a giant reward...so far it is working out. Just thought I would mention it because I still think this one still has more to run, at least to $8. If it ever dipped there might be an entry there. Hell, I would be willing to add more without much else to do.

Other than that, I am just watching the financials. I don't care how far they have fallen percentage wise in terms of having an effect on the indexes, this market is still not going to have much upward momentum until they have at least stabilized. I will be getting some watchlists up soon.

Appreciate the feedback from you guys that have sent e-mails! I encourage anyone to post responses here, anywhere...it doesn't matter. I will get them! Makes it worth while feeling like I am helping.

JAX

About all I see

2009-03-02T20:09:00.003-06:00

Ha! Sorry couldn't help myself.

Joking aside, I hope all of you are all cash as I continue to be since early last week.
I think we are setting up for a big short squeeze at some point as I have heard that there is data that today was the highest day in which financials were shorted. Seems a bit late to me and mostly will lead to a counter trend bounce at some point. I will be following intraday charts for confirmation and will try to play a squeeze should it occur. Right now we haven't seen any reason to risk our precious capital. There have been a few intraday spikes which indicates some short covering but nothing that noteworthy. There was some big accumulation of UYG in the final minutes of the trading day which could make things interesting tomorrow if some sort of news comes out that leads to a gap. That could cause some major short scrambling which might a major squeeze and a gap and go. But truly I am hoping we break the recent lows, see some capitulation action and see big volume buying which offers a true low risk/high reward entry. I will post any entries as I see them through out the day. I continue to watch some commodity names but the action there today was quite atrocious and given the fact they haven't been hit quite as hard lately, I fail to see a good entry.

JAX

S&P 500 break of November Lows

2009-03-01T19:23:00.005-06:00

The S&P Index broke November lows on Friday on increasing volume and it looks like we are set for a new leg lower. I have been all cash since being stopped out after some big gains last week. For now, the market is in "prove me mode" and will be waiting for a change in character before putting any capital to work. But I will be trying to generate some new watchlists which I will fine tune through out the week.

JAX

2009 Report card - Outperfoming Averages by 50%

2009-02-25T17:50:00.000-06:00

Since we had such a good day here yesterday, I felt like updating the YTD chart as continued proof that I am not making this up, and you can dominate the current market or any market if you develop rules you will stick with, are willing to adjust to the
current market, have enough self control to be patient and sit in all cash when times call for it, and are willing to constantly work on updating watchlists, look through thousands of charts, follow the news, develop & test thesis, tweak scans, etc. This
is what I do everyday and this is what it takes. I do this everyday and night and post here what I think is of most importance. So hopefully someone out there is benefiting.

In an effort to try to be as transparent as possible I am going to start posting my portfolio performance versus the index averages at the end of each month. This is a straight screen shot from my portfolio, the only editing I did was to take off my account number. According to this chart, my portfolio is up over 36% YTD while the S&P 500 is down over 14%. So I am pretty happy with my results thus far, considering I am above the indexes by over 50% and these were all long positions (I haven't shorted a stock this year, or bought an inverse ETF). Definitely still room for improvement as there were a few cases I should have taken gains earlier or didn't stick to my stops/rules and paid the consequences. I would suggest we all constantly review our results because that is the only way those mistakes, that cost us our precious capital, become valuable.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Let's see if we can continue to improve and outperform the averages as we move throughout the year.

Best,

JAX

That Was Easy!

2009-02-25T08:22:00.003-06:00

NOW BE SURE TO PROTECT YOUR GAINS!

Most of the bounces were on light volume so I am going to keep very tight stops on a big piece of the positions and I might just keep a little to trade around.

Updated YTD

I think we are set for the bounce today

2009-02-24T09:08:00.001-06:00

Im going to start some positions in a few from the list near support levels and add to them as they get volume. I will keep tight stops if the bounce and/or volume never hits.
Starters in:
EXM, RIO, SID, MTL, UYG, AKS, FAS
Still holding PCX from yesterday

UPDATE WITH POSITIONS, COST BASIS, AND STOPS

My entries were perfectly timed and I am moving up my stops to protect my gains here, but with little resistance overhead and the financials finally gaining traction I think we have a very good chance of rallying into the close, so I want to give enough room for them to run but I will continue to move up my stops and take some gains as the day moves along. The only one I have taken gains on so far is PCX from the buy yesterday but I am still holding a large position.

Stock CB STOP
PCX 3.09 3.40
EXM 3.5 3.5
RIO 12 12.5
SID 12.6 12.6
MTL 3.35 3.5
AKS 6 6
UYG 2.02 2.15
FAS 4.65 5ish

PCX bottom fish

2009-02-23T14:44:00.003-06:00

Im going to try a bottom fish here on PCX. Has been getting big volume bars in the 3.05-3.10 area and I am going to buy some here at 3.09. Not the typical chart I buy but I think coal is due for a bounce and this one is extremely oversold. I will keep a tight stop on it and cut it should it break below three.

JAX

UPDATE 10 min later: News just broke that the Chairman of the board bought 100,000 shares of PCX today. Probably accounted for a big part of the volume bars I was seeing but the news should help the bounce.

Afternoon Update I got stopped out on RIC at 2.75 for a minor loss. I'm going to keep this one on the radar but I think gold needs to consolidate a bit before it can make another run. I was really hoping RIC would have made the move on Friday while gold was pushing through 1000 but it wasn't to be. But that is the importance of keeping a stop on your positions as RIC had an awful close. If you are still in, the pattern is still intact and I would just keep a stop just under yesterdays low as it looks to have support in the 2.31 area. I might consider an add just above there if gold is showing strength and the overall market is weak.

Updated Watchlist

2009-02-23T00:47:00.003-06:00

We remain very oversold in the short term and I think any positive news could lead to pretty big bounce as shorts scramble to cover. A break of the November low could lead to some panic and could be a great spot to pick up some names at low risk spots. Here are some of the names that I feel could have significant bounces with support levels defined. Be sure to respect your stops as we remain in a downtrend. The bank ETFs will also be a place I will be following closely but purely as quick flips (UYG, FAS, etc.). I think these commodity names could see money coming into them as inflation continues to become a bigger issue over the coming months, as the government revisits their stance on the economy.

JAX

IN RIC 2.90 - small gold with big volume

2009-02-20T09:47:00.002-06:00

In *RIC here at 2.90. Gold play breaking out of strong base on big volume. Will be adding on dips as well. Has big bidder here and this one has not moved much with the rest of the golds. Good news from January and already has 4x daily volume. Volume bar will get major attention over the weekend if doesn't break out today.

Indexes struggling to find support... Looking for a bounce off of S&P at 741. Watchlist with support areas should the tide turn.

2009-02-19T22:35:00.004-06:00

USB chart... Post for my brother

2009-02-17T17:17:00.006-06:00

A look at USB's chart. From a fundamental perspective, I personally don't want to own any bank that its taking TARP money because it doesn't seem like a good R/R to own any bank that has the potential to be nationalized or has loans with basically unknown terms. But my brother wanted me to break down the chart for him and I figure it might be a worthwhile exercise.

In conclusion, I don't see an entry point that offers a good R/R. It could very well bounce and if you have the talent for catching falling knifes, on the way to turning in your application to join the circus, maybe you can pick up some shares of USB. If you somehow have insider information and truly believe in this stocks fundamentals, I still wouldn't be a buyer here. The stock is only worth what the current holders and buyers think it is worth. Right now all I see is PANIC and PAIN. That can go on alot longer than most will think so I would wait for the stock to develop a new base and be patient for an opportunity to arise that you can prudently INVEST (not gamble) your money where the R/R is around 3:1 in your favor with a clearly defined stop loss point.

Update: One more thing, if there is some kind of news related bounce as in the case of the "bad bank" scenario I would be looking for intraday green volume bars that are like the ones seen yesterday and I would keep a stop at day low for at least the first trading day. If there is a gap I would either adhere to the first hour rule or see if it fills the gap and see how it acts. Check the past posts on the bottom right for a few ways on how to play a gap.

JAX

VGZ 20%ish boomage...Nice!

2009-02-17T10:51:00.000-06:00

Patience is paying off here in VGZ. I am going ahead and locking a big part of the gain here at 2.88 because I have accumulated a pretty big position over the last couple days and don't want to let it slip away. Gold still looks set for higher prices and I will revisit this one again should it set up well. Let a small part go with a stop at 2.78ish.

The market has broken the 800 level and is looking extremely shaky so I am going to hold off on any buys at least until the close and we get some sore of clarification of a new range. 790 so far as held a couple times intraday and I want to at least see us close above that level before I put on any longs.

Stopped out early in the day on the rest of SD. All cash for now except for the remainder of VGZ.

JAX

Heading into a Short trade week

2009-02-16T18:41:00.003-06:00

I am continuing to watch MDR, GRA, and SD. All three are setting up well for another entry after consolidating recent gains in an overall weak market. I will post entry/add points as they come. I still have a 1/3 position in SD, I have held from my initial buy at 6.00.

I am also still in VGZ from the buy last week.

A few others I have on high watch are:

MTL, DHI

-Jax

PCX Friday News sqeeze out for now

2009-02-15T22:17:00.003-06:00

PCX finally squeezed on Friday on news that the previous court decision on mountain top mining had been reversed. I had got my cost basis down to 4.82 and when it finally broke $5 I kept moving up my stop and finally locked in the gains in the the 5.40-5.55 range for a pretty nice gain. I will keep it on the radar for a reload but given the very poor close this one is in serious prove me mode.

VGZ Gold leads the way

2009-02-11T20:42:00.004-06:00

Gold lead the way today as the market was able to bounce off the bottom end of its trading range. I expect this trend to continue into tomorrow and here is a good looking setup with volume that will attract trader's attention tomorrow.

Sell the NEWS!

2009-02-10T10:46:00.003-06:00

I was a day early and gave up some further gains in MDR and SD but the sell the news reaction is in full effect. I am remaining patient but will pick at a few starters in some of my favorites should entry arise. The S&P doesn't have support until 825 so I would be cautious. One I grabbed a starter in is PCX. Had much better than expected earnings and jumped up 10% before being hammered with the overall market. I guess due to the fact they closed some mines and lower guidance...is that not priced in?? I think this is more panic on a down 300 day so I will see if I can capitalize on it. In some PCX at 5.20.

1:25 pm add more PCX at 5.01

Oil watchlist

2009-02-08T15:42:00.002-06:00

Some oils to watch next week if the commodity price can continue to build off of $40:

SD* PBR* PXP* XTXI BOLT KWK* NE NFX* HK SPN FST COG XCO* XTXI CXO DNR GMXR SPN SM TTI PDO GTE TESO

*Denotes favorites in the group. I will be looking for light volume pullbacks toward the 50 dma due to a sell the news reaction to the stimulus or other overall market weakness to pick up shares.

Locking in MDR here at 12.40

2009-02-06T10:31:00.004-06:00

I'm locking in the gain on MDR here at 12.40 for a $2.50 a share profit. Stock looks great but I think the market is set up for a sell the news reaction on Monday and I don't want these profits to get away. The S&P is about 6 points away from its 50 dma and looks like a perfect setup for the new bailout/Geitner plan. Will look to add back on a light volume dip. I'm not saying it doesn't have more upside ahead but in this market you have to take big gains when you have them and remain nimble.

JAX

UPDATE 1:00 PM: SD is about to break through 7.50 and this is what I have been waiting on for this position. I think the technical setup is nice for it to breakout but I am a bit concerned that oil is not going to allow for this happen. Oil has been down most of the day and I really think it will struggle to push off $40 if we get a sell the news reaction. So if we get through 7.50 and big volume hits I will let it run (volume has been rather light thus far today). If volume doesn't hit I am going to go ahead and lock in at least half should it fall back under 7.50. The rest I will put a stop on around 7.25 and will probably sell into strength if we get a run into the close. I will continue to keep this on the radar and over the weekend will post another watchlist of oil stocks to keep an eye on next week.

Update 2:00 PM MDR managed to climb another 35 cents after my sell so congrats to any of you that held on a little longer. And congrats to any of you who held onto GRA an extra day as it added on another 5% today. (I would be a seller here as it has made a Vish looking bounce on lighter and lighter volume.) But really congrats to any of you who were able to make money on any three of these stocks over the last week. It has been a very successful week for me and was really one of the easiest setup and trades I have made in the last several months. Any way I plan on trying to post a video over the weekend on how I chose these specific stocks (technicals, fundamentals, catalysts, etc.), and why they offered such good R/R. So be sure to check for that this weekend or sign up for the RSS feed and you will get an e-mail when I make and update.

Sold half of SD at 7.48 by the way.

SO far SO good

2009-02-05T22:14:00.002-06:00

MDR, GRA, and SD are all working perfectly thus far. Coming into the day I had full positions in all three, adding more into the light volume weakness early in the week. These are all positions which I like long term and will be continually trading around. SD looks to be breaking out of a triangle pattern and needs a big volume day to make a big move. With oil finally seeming to form a good support level around $40 I really like this one for some good upside in the near future. GRA is bouncing on light volume and I locked in big portion of the gain. Only 12% gain but I had pretty big size and wanted to lock in some gains and allow SD and MDR a little more room to run.

MDR I am in at 9.92 and I think could run into Monday when we get the news on the new stimulus plan. Any further investment into infrastructure especially nuclear and this one could really see some upside. Just today MDR received awards in excess of $1 billion for the manufacture of nuclear components to support U.S. defense programs, including the manufacture of U.S. Naval nuclear power systems for submarines and aircraft carriers. MDR said this work is part of a set of contracts that, once complete, will be worth more than $2.66 billion in revenue over a 10 year span.
If oil rallies from $40, MDR stock should benefit as the Offshore Oil and Gas Construction segment of MDR which engages in the front-end design and detailed engineering, fabrication, and installation of offshore drilling and production facilities has been the main driver of MDR's stock price over the past year. All in all this one has a really nice volume pattern and has consolidated recent gains over the 50 dma and has several potential catalysts for some good price appreciation. So I am going to remain long and strong this one for now but will, as always lock in some gains as they come and always use stops.

Sorry the posts have dropped off a little recently but I plan on posting more frequently very soon and get back to posting charts and market commentary.

JAX

Reloading some SD, MDR, and GRA

2009-01-30T13:34:00.003-06:00

I'm reloading some SD, MDR, and GRA here. I sold them into the "bad bank" rally two days ago from my initial buys last week. We have had two days of pullback and I'm initiating a 2/3 position in GRA at 5.76, really like this chart and easy stop out at a close under 50 dma. I like the inverse head and shoulders pattern in DBA, the AG ETF and I that should help the cause. I held onto a little of SD from the buy last week at $6 and I'm going to add back a portion of what I sold at 7.50ish, here at 6.70. MDR has a nice looking light volume fade as well so I will grab a starter here at 10.35.

Market still shaky

2009-01-22T20:38:00.005-06:00

The market remains shaky and I am sticking to quick trades for the most part and not carrying too much overnight. The positions I am holding overnight I am slowly building up overtime and I will look to add aggressively should the market turn or they start to see some good volume.

Here is my short list
Infra: All of these busted through their 50dma on big volume recently and are now building strong bases over that support level.

CBI, MDR, KBR

SGR is my favorite and I have had good trades here recently but it is a bit extended for me here. It got a good pop off earnings this month and I think these could follow suit with many of their earning reports coming out over the next month.

Oils:
SD - already in at 6.00 and have flipped some I will trade around this one and look to add on a big volume day. Consistently sees big volume bars sporadically through out the day which tells me many funds are accumulating this one.

XTXI - continues to pullback along its declining 50 dma looking for a volume boom to get in this one. I talk to many traders and this one is on all their radars, when a fund makes the first move this one could lead to substantial gains. But for now the stock is pulling back daily on light volume. So just a watch list name for now.

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Watchin 800 and 750 on S&P

2009-01-21T08:05:00.003-06:00

The last bounce attempt ran out of steam rather quickly and I have been all cash besides some quick flips since last Thursday. There are still some good looking pullbacks, in shippers and infrastructure stocks especially, that I will be watching to play should we bounce off 800.

INFRA: SGR, MDR, CBI,
SHIPPERS: GNK, DRYS, TBSI, EXM

But I will be watching the action in the financial etfs to lead the way because we are not going anywhere until they find a bottom. FAS and UYG might be interesting for a quick trade.

JAX

Finally bounced

2009-01-16T08:15:00.002-06:00

We finally got the bounce off the tarp news. We will see this morning if this rally has legs. This market remains annoying as it is nearly impossible to build postions with time frames longer than a day which makes it hard to recommend individual setups. I will continue to play a rally but won't hesitate taking profits quickly.
One thing to keep in mind is the oil contract expires on Tuesday and Monday is a holiday. Over the past few months oil has rallied up as the contract expired with the next contract already trading at much higher levels. That makes hlding positions through the shift in contract a bit more risky.

Oil cuts through Low

2009-01-15T12:02:00.002-06:00

Oil has broken lows of late last year and I have taken stops on the small trackers. The indexes continue to plunge lower and I am just stepping aside and watching for something to change. Turns out I covered my shorts way too early but I don't feel like shorting here as I think we are do for a bounce relatively shortly and I will just be waiting for signs that bounce is about to take place.

JAX

Waiting, Watching, Protecting my capital

2009-01-14T12:52:00.002-06:00

I should have got a post out earlier because I have gotten tons of e-mails asking what I am doing here. In my last post I said if "we blow past support then I will wait it out" and that is what I am doing. I cut back the small positions I had to just trackers for now. We have no support and I am not going to fight the trend when the only thing we positive is some good looking pullback patterns in individual stocks. Stocks like XTXI and SD have really nice looking low volume pullbacks but they still have room to pullback and keep that pattern intact as 50 dma are still in downtrends.

I am going to try to get a post out tonight cutting down my list to only the best looking pullbacks and what I will be looking as indicators it is time to get aggressive. Oil is the primary indicator as of now. The $30 level is holding on USO, lets see if we get a test of the 52 week low. I will be watching for big spikes in volume on a minute chart to start making buys. The commodity price looks set to test the December low over the next day or two. I want to see that hold before I put much funds at risk. Another sector to keep your eye on is the Bulk Shippers. Money has flooded into that sector and then retroactively into other commodity plays as those start moving. Most of those stocks such as DRYS, GNK, EXM, TBSI are pulling back on light volume and they could be a leading indicator of which way other commodity stocks head. I am sure the bears have been licking their chops at the prospect of shorting 400%+ moves since the November low, in the case of DRYS. Whether this leads more and more to lock in gains or a further squeeze will be interesting. The dry bulk index has seemed to bottom after falling off a cliff for months. Lets see if it can maintain an uptrend.

Chart of Dry Bulk Index

But For now I think patience and capital preservation is the only prudent course of action.

JAX

50 dma break ... Watching Oil pullback

2009-01-13T08:27:00.001-06:00

I am being patient here and waiting for oil to bounce around theses levels before gaining support around the $34-35 area where I will look to get long some commodity names. The S&P has broken its 50 dma and temporary support so I want to be very cautious here and not get caught in some panic selling. I want to be waiting cash in hand to do some buying. I ultimately think the S&P will find support around the 850-860 but should we blow past that I would wait it out.

A couple really close to their 52 wk low which they defended last a few weeks back:
MTL PCX

A few of my favorites I am looking for pullbacks in
XCO 8ish
XTEX 4ish
SD 6ish
XTXI DNN - already long starters here, being patient for add points
SGR

Well here I will just post the list again and highlight my favorites in yellow.

Send me an e-mail at traderjax@rocketmail.com if you want me to just send you the list.

JAX

Watchlist with Interest Ranges

2009-01-11T19:33:00.005-06:00

I will be watching how oil continues to act at the $40 level before I get too aggressive in commodity names. A LVPB to the $30 dollar level to 53 WL in USO may be good R/R areas to start picking at some of your favorites. I am already long XTXI and DNN from Friday. This is still a list I continue to build off of and just gives general levels that would would attract my attention. I explained some of the shorthand used at the bottom.
........................................................................
The following stocks look to have put in a bottom and I will be looking for a light volume pullback to pick up shares. I will be averaging in slowly with the idea of starting longer term positions that I will until they see weakness on big volume and sell into strength at the next resistance levels. I will post stops and price targets as I initiate positions.

These are big ranges just to give a general idea where I will look to initiate depending on the action and overall market. I will tighten the ranges as the stocks begin to pullback. I will be looking for the best R/R that arises. I will highlight the best setups as they arise.
.........................................................................

Oil & Gas

XTXI BF, PB to 4.5
PDO 4.5 to 5
NOV 25.5 - 26
CLR
BZP 6.75 - 7.25
QELP BF, 50 3.5
SD 1234 8.15, PB 6-7
CHK 14
NGS 1.5 -1.75
BEXP 3ish
PXP 22ish

Alternative Energy
Solars
LDK
SOL 4.30 - 4.5
JASO 4-4.5
YGE 6ish
CSUN 3.7-4ish
Wind
APWR

Metals & Mining **ALWAYS KNOW WHAT YOU OWN**
TGB 50 dma - .73 copper
AA 10ish aluminum
TCK 50 dma to 5ish diversified copper/coal/zinc/gold/energy
TC 50 dma - 4ish molybdenum
DNN NPB Starter here uranium
STLD dips toward 10 metal fabrication, scrap metal reycleing
MEA OT scrap metal recycleing/lead fabrication
RIO 12 ish Brazilian
SID dip toward 12.5 Brazilian
MTL 3.60-4ish Russian: coal/iron/nickel mining, steel/carbon production
CLF 25
AKS dips toward 9
CMC dips toward 11
NUE 38-40
ZEUS
GSI
GNA dips toward 5

COAL
PCX 6 to 7 Coal
WLT coal w/ divisions in nat gas,home building,mortgages
JRCC Coal

Agriculture Chemicals
KMGB
IPI
TRA
IPHS

Dry Bulk Shippers - hard to give ranges on these as they are so extended. It really will depend on downward volume on pullbacks. But have beautiful volume patterns so need to still keep on the radar but I will keep tighter stops on these if I reload any of them.
GNK 13 to 15
TBSI 9 to 10
DRYS 10 to 12
EXM

Infrastructure
SGR Yen @ 91 on Jan 9th report. Weakness in Yen before next report should help Westinghouse division on exchange rates before next report.
STRL
FWLT LVPB 20 -23
KHD

TECH/Other
STX 5-5.35
VISN LVPB 6.5
GLW 9.5-10
OME
FRPT OT
SIGM
ARM 1234 3.35, nPB 2.75-3

Precious Metals - many seem like they are basing for a move higher. I will post more on these over the coming days but they really should be part of a different list.
CDE
HL
SLW
GOLD
AUY

FEED
PDGI
....................................................

Some terms explained
LVPB Light volume pull back
50dma 50 day moving average
PB pull back
nPB nice pullback
LV light volume
BF Bull flag pattern
AT Ascending Triangle Pattern
1234 3 day pullback on light volume after a big move on good volume. Buy point is throught day 3 high.
OT overextended in short term - keeping on watchlist
52WL 52 week low
52WH 52 week high

Off the Report

2009-01-09T08:51:00.004-06:00

The headline number is better than expected but again the previous month was revised up. The underlying numbers are absolutely dreadful as more and more employees are forced to work shorter work weeks. This seems like the first step into an employee getting layoff and we might be set for a shocking number over the next couple months. The market remains overbought in the short term and I think this will give the bears the ammunition to start getting aggressive. I will be looking for some good R/R spots in the early trade.

I went ahead and locked in the rest of my gain on YGE and JASO but will remain high on watch if the market stabilizes.

Update 1:00 PM The market seems to be stabilizing and defending the 890 level. An important thing to notice is how light the volume is on the S&P after what seems to be very bearish news. This probably means that most of the selling is done and investors are now waiting to put money back to work. Maybe they are waiting for all the next quarter reports to be out or maybe they are planning to wait even longer until the unemployment rate shows an improvement. But when it comes down to it I make the majority of my money playing charts in conjunction with fundamentals and commodity prices. Oil dipped again below the $40 level and it seems like this level my be well defended. So I am going to put some money in a couple of stocks with good looking setups for next week.

Two of them are commodity plays of the list we have been generating in DNN and XTXI. I have took decent size in both but left room to add next week. The other stock is STX which has been hot of the CES this week. It will soon release a product that will compete with the Apple TV and could give the company huge growth potential. I am small here but will add aggressively if the volume continues to roll in.

JAX

Solars hit Targets...Treading Lightly into Tomorrow's Job Report

2009-01-08T11:59:00.003-06:00

10:00 am:
I bought some JASO and YGE on the open as they both opened at the bottom end of the ranges I posted. They immediately rebounded and are up 6-10%. I said I planned to hold these positions for a few day period but I am going to lock half of each before Obama's speech because I don't want to lose these quick profits in a sell the news reaction. I will see how they act after the initial reaction to the speech to possibly reload.

UPDATE 10:45 am: As expected there was an initial sell the news reaction on the solars. They seem to be stabilizing and I am just watching right now. Both YGE and JASO are set to have big volume. If they can get a good close, they could be set to run, especially if oil bounces. I will post another update if I add back shares. I doubt I will ahead of tomorrow unless I plan to flip them today. Tentative stop at day low which is basically my entry point.

I am treading lightly today. I don't want to have too much invested before the big jobs number tomorrow. Oil is still flirting with $40 and the commodity list is mixed with not many movers other than solars and shippers. Shippers hammered hard off the open, similar to solars but entry points remain tough there with only one down day off big moves. I wouldn't chase anything there as I doubt they can break out, hopefully they will chop around for a few days and offer a good entry. But I would keep in mind that the other commodity plays have followed the shippers and I continue to work in search for the best entry points.

The S&P dipped below 900 earlier but is still holding that level. A move below the 50 dma (890ish) on big volume then I would move back to all cash and hold off from making any new buys (even if they enter our ranges) until we stabilize. The next support level is not until 870 and I fear panic could enter the market if we have an awful jobs report and break support on the same day. When we started this uptrend from the November low, market players began to buy the bad news. A big turning point in the rally came when we had the worst job report in decades and the bad news was still bought. Review my Dec 6th post "Bulls Show a Little Horn" to get a feel why I think the report tomorrow is so important.

Since then we have had seasonality kick in and enjoyed a decent rally and racked up some big gains. We also have had some better than expected weekly unemployment numbers (not usual market movers) because of seasonal hiring that have helped keep the market upbeat. Tomorrow's reaction to the report could drive the market direction over the next few months. If the number is worse than expected we could sell off and break support which could lead to panic or many players just deciding to pull out money and wait for a better opportunity. At the same time, the news could be bad and market players could again buy it and we could remain in a short term uptrend, after all the stock market always bottoms months before the actual economy. If the number is better than expected (not likely) we will have an immediate positive reaction that should bring more money off the side lines. This should lead to a rally that has legs at least until the next month's report or other negative news like worse than expected earnings from major U.S. companies.

So I will continue to develop our long list and also have a few good shorts in mind should the market react poorly to the jobs report.

1:10 P.M. DRYS is about to break day high as the market picks up a little strength. In GNK here for a quick day trade at 17.40.

3:30 P.M. Flipped GNK at 18.2. It couldn't get through day high at 18.4 and I don't want to hold it going into the jobs report. I also took more profits on JASO and YGE near into the close and only hold trackers in JASO at 4.1 and YGE at 6.05.

JAX

UPDATED LIST: Long Radar off the bottom

2009-01-07T19:29:00.004-06:00

I am continuing to build off the list I started two days ago. Like I said then, I thought oil would struggle to get through $50 and this should offer a good opportunity for many of these names to consolidate recent gains and locked in the last pieces of our massive gains in stocks such as PCX and GNK. Since then oil stalled a bit yesterday and then today got hammered after oil reserves increased drastically more than analyst expectations. At the time of the release oil was trading between $48 and $50 and many of the stocks on the list were pulling back on light volume. I did my best to post an update at 9:30 a.m. (posted below) so none of you would be tempted by the light volume pullback in some of these stocks.

If you didn't get the update, do yourself and sign up for one of my free RSS feeds on the right side of the page so you will be emailed every time I make an update.

Oil held up for a while before being crushed late in the day and closing under $43. Oil could very well bounce early in the trading day tomorrow but I still think we need to remain patient here as I think oil is going to retest $40 and maybe even the December low at $35. So use these lists, pick out your favorites with good volume patters and have good looking pullbacks. Maybe grab a small starter (1/4 position) as oil reaches around $40 and be prepared to aggressively as oil continues to pullback near December lows if the individual stock's volume pattern stays intact. Keep in mind there is a big job number coming out Friday and I don't want to be heavily invested before that.

DNN is one in particular with a good looking pattern. I could even see buying this one on strength through 1.50 if commodities decide to ramp back up tomorrow. Just be sure to keep a tight stop a take gains quickly.

..................................................................................
**This list will be reposted every night. It was started on Monday, Jan. 5th 2009 and is built on daily.

The following stocks look to have put in a bottom and I will be looking for a light volume pullback to pick up shares. I will be averaging in slowly with the idea of starting longer term positions that I will until they see weakness on big volume and sell into strength at the next resistance levels. I will post stops and price targets as I initiate positions.

These are big ranges just to give a general idea where I will look to initiate depending on the action and overall market. I will tighten the ranges as the stocks begin to pullback. I will be looking for the best R/R that arises. I will highlight the best setups as they arise.

Oil & Gas
XTXI 4.00-4.50 range
PDO 4.5 to 5
BZP 6.75 - 7.25
QELP
SD
NGS

Alternative Energy
Solars
LDK
SOL 4.30 - 4.50
JASO 4 - 4.5ish
YGE 6ish
CSUN 3.7 - 4ish
Wind
APWR -not a pretty volume pattern but it doesn't seem to matter because this one explodes higher when alternative energy plays get hot. Just be fast if you play it and don't get caught holding the bag.

Metals & Mining **ALWAYS KNOW WHAT YOU OWN**
TGB (copper) 50 dma .73
AA (aluminum) 10ish
TCK (diversified copper/coal/zinc/gold/energy) 50dma to 5ish
TC (molybdenum) 50 dma to 4ish
DNN (uranium) 1.2 to 1
Steel & Iron
MEA (scrap metal recycleing/lead fabrication) pullback to 50 dma down to 1.75
MTL (Russian: coal/iron/nickel mining, steel/carbon production) 4ish
PCX (coal)6 - 7
WLT (coal w/ divisions in nat gas,home building,mortgages)
JRCC (coal)

Agriculture Chemicals
KMGB
IPI
TRA
IPHS

Dry Bulk Shippers - hard to give ranges on these as they are so extended. It really will depend on downward volume on pullbacks. But have beautiful volume patterns so need to still keep on the radar but I will keep tighter stops on these if I reload any of them.
GNK 13 to 15
TBSI 9 to 10
DRYS 10 to 12
EXM

Infrastructure
SGR
STRL
FWLT
KHD

TECH/Other
VISN light volume dip 6-6.5
GLW 9.5-10
OME
FRPT
SIGM
ARM 44% gainer off the bottom today on massive volume.

Precious Metals - many seem like they are basing for a move higher. I will post more on these over the coming days but they really should be part of a different list.
CDE
HL
SLW
GOLD
AUY

I will be building up this list over the coming days. Feel free to post any ideas or feedback.

Jax

2009: Not one down day? HA.

2009-01-07T09:07:00.006-06:00

I am just going to let my shorts from yesterday (TZA @ 42 and SKF @ 101.5 avg.) run moving up my stops on SKF up to around my original but of 103 and TZA around the 44 level. I want to give them a chance to get going but I want to make sure I lock in profits as well so watch the volume patterns and let that be your guide.

On the long end, I will be watching the names from list we have built. Like I said two days ago I thought oil would struggle to get through $50 and this should offer a good opportunity for many of those names to consolidate. Oil started consolidating yesterday and continues today. I think we need to remain patient here and watch for oil and other commodity prices to build new ranges. Lots of big gains still out there to protect and some of these could really tank especially the small caps that are way up such as XTXI. I will continue to work on the list and develop more actionable ranges as they pull back.

UPDATE: 9:30 am Oil reserves have increased drastically more than analyst expectations. This makes me think Oil will retest $40 and maybe even $35. Obviously oil isn't the primary factor in the pricing of many of these commodity stocks. But the correlation has been extremely high lately and I will be very patient before jumping into these overextended ones unless your time frames are shorter than a hour or two.

10:00 am Moving up my stops on half of both positions to just below day lows. Both look pretty close to breaking out intra-day and I will be looking to unload half into that strength.

Update 2:15 I'm booking TZA at 47.5 and locking in SKF at $110. Volume is a bit light and there is support on the S&P at 900. I will consider a reload if 900 breaks.

JAX

UPDATED LIST: Long Radar off the bottom

2009-01-06T15:34:00.007-06:00

I am continuing to build off the list I started two days ago. Like I said then, I thought oil would struggle to get through $50 and this should offer a good opportunity for many of these names to consolidate recent gains. Since then oil stalled a bit yesterday and then today got hammered after oil reserves increased drastically more than analyst expectations. At the time of the release oil was trading between $48 and $50 and many of the stocks on the list were pulling back on light volume. I did my best to post an update at 9:30 a.m. (posted below) so none of you would be tempted by the light volume pullback in some of these stocks.

If you didn't get the update, do yourself and sign up for one of my free RSS feeds on the right side of the page so you will be emailed every time I make an update.

Oil held up for a while before being crushed late in the day and closing under $43. Oil could very well bounce early in the trading day tomorrow but I still think we need to remain patient here as I think oil is going to retest $40 and maybe even the December low at $35. So use these lists, pick out your favorites with good volume patters and have good looking pullbacks. Maybe grab a small starter (1/4 position) as oil reaches around $40 and be prepared to aggressively as oil continues to pullback near December lows if the individual stocks volume pattern stays in tack.

DNN is on in paticular with a good looking pattern. I could even see buying this one on strength through 1.50 if commodities decide to ramp back up tomorrow. Just be sure to keep a tight stop.

..................................................................................

The following stocks look to have put in a bottom and I will be looking for a light volume pullback to pick up shares. I will be averaging in slowly with the idea of starting longer term positions that I will hold until they see weakness on big volume and sell into strength at the next resistance levels. I will post stops and targets as I initiate positions.

These are big ranges just to give a general idea where I will look to initiate depending on the action and overall market. Many may not pullback this far but I will be looking for the best R/R that arises. Some may pullback further and I may cut or add depending on the action.

Oil & Gas
XTXI 4.00-4.50 range
PDO 4.5 to 5
BZP 6.75 - 7.25
QELP
SD
NGS

Alternative Energy
Solars
LDK
SOL 4.30 - 4.50
JASO 4 - 4.5ish
YGE 6ish
CSUN 3.7 - 4ish
Wind
APWR -not a pretty volume pattern but it doesn't seem to matter because this one explodes higher when alternative energy plays get hot. Just be fast if you play it and don't get caught holding the bag.

Metals & Mining **ALWAYS KNOW WHAT YOU OWN**
TGB (copper) 50 dma .73
AA (aluminum) 10ish
TCK (diversified copper/coal/zinc/gold/energy) 50dma to 5ish
TC (molybdenum) 50 dma to 4ish
DNN (uranium) 1.2 to 1
Steel & Iron
MEA (scrap metal recycleing/lead fabrication) pullback to 50 dma down to 1.75
MTL (Russian: coal/iron/nickel mining, steel/carbon production) 4ish
PCX (coal)6 - 7
WLT (coal w/ divisions in nat gas,home building,mortgages)
JRCC (coal)

Agriculture Chemicals
KMGB
IPI
TRA
IPHS

Dry Bulk Shippers - hard to give ranges on these as they are so extended. It really will depend on downward volume on pullbacks. But have beautiful volume patterns so need to still keep on the radar but I will keep tighter stops on these if I reload any of them.
GNK 13 to 15
TBSI 9 to 10
DRYS 10 to 12
EXM

Infrastructure
SGR
STRL
FWLT
KHD

TECH/Other
VISN light volume dip 6-6.5
GLW 9.5-10
OME
FRPT
SIGM
ARM 44% gainer off the bottom today on massive volume.

Precious Metals - many seem like they are basing for a move higher. I will post more on these over the coming days but they really should be part of a different list.
CDE
HL
SLW
GOLD
AUY

I will be building up this list over the coming days. Feel free to post any ideas or feedback.

Jax

Don't seen any good R/R on Longs so get Short.

2009-01-06T10:10:00.007-06:00

OR buy inverse ETFs but you know what I mean.

Buying some SKF here at 103. UYG, XLF have bounced on light volume over the last several trading sessions and are failing against their 50 dma. I will take a stop on the position on a close above the 50 dma on one of those charts.

Also buying some SRS here just above $54. I like the volume pattern here and looks like it has a put in a short term bottom. I will keep a stop just under yesterdays low around 52ish.

UPDATE: 1:30 Stopped out of SRS for a minimal loss. Still think this one is putting in an short term bottom but bad timing on my part. Sorry for the nick but I set my stops for a reason and always respect them. As you can see after falling below 52 the SRS quickly tanked to 49. I was willing to take a 2-3% loss but nothing more.

I am moving these funds into TZA which is the inverse of the Russell 2000 levered 3x. If you look at the chart of IWM which is the Russell Index it is setting up a classic bearish wedge on declining volume. I am initiating some TZA here at 42. If you don't want as much volatilty you could play TWM which is the inverse of IWM. I will put a stop a dollar under day low at 40.50. This is a short term trade. Where I am taking pretty big size but will be flipping portions into strength.

I also added a third to SKF at $100 to bring my cost basis to 101.5. The big financial look weak to me and I will give this one a little time to roll over.

JAX

More Boomage!

2009-01-05T10:34:00.010-06:00

Sold all my PCX except a small tracker at my target of $9.00 today for a 50% gain. Also sold a piece of my MTL at 4.83 and I'm moving up my stop to the 4.50 area on the rest.

Got a few starters in some solars but I am being patient there. I don't want to be caught in a sell the news scenario should Obama announce the government spending plan and solars have ran a bit already.

I bought a few of the small cap oils this a.m. but there quickly saw big percentage moves without much volume to support them. So I flipped most of them and will continue to keep an eye out for influx of volume. Still holding a tracker in PDO as it is getting some pretty good volume and will look to add back should it break resistance at 5.40-5.50. However, I am also concerned that oil might see some heavy resistance at $50 so want to be cautious of how it reacts at that level.

Also bought some VISN this a.m. which is up nearly 20% on big volume. I posted it on my portfolio at thelion.com.
http://www.thelion.com/bin/port.cgi?cmd=see&user_id=TraderJax
Should it break $7 it could really see a pop. Hopefully it will hold off for a day or two as I would flip it if broke today and watch for a pullback to reload over the coming days.

Update 1:00 PM: The market is starting to look weak and I'm going to lock in the rest of my gains on all my open positions. I have big gains over the last couple days and I don't want to let them slip away.

JAX

Small Cap Oils Watchlist

2009-01-04T19:07:00.002-06:00

If oil continues to rebound strongly I will be watching some of these small cap oils and solars should they see a surge in volume. Early last summer many of these stocks made insane moves such as MXC from under 5 to over 50 in less than a month, PDO from 3.5 to 35 etc. With some of them making big percentage moves over the last couple days(BPZ, QELP) on light volume I except the others to start to see attention. The early part of the year is seasonally the best time for small caps as hedge funds have a bigger tolerance for risk. With oil in rebound mode and these stocks recently hammered it seems a logical place for the money to go. With many of them still having big short positions I could see them making big percentage moves. I will be watching for volume surges to get long. A few such as KOG and NOG have already seen good upticks in volume and I have already started positions in a few names. When all traders return to the desk Monday, it might add some fuel to the fire.

Small Cap Oils Screen

HUSA ROYL PDO KOG KAZ MXC NOG BPZ WH CFW CMZ ENT XCO

Solars saw massive moves as well and I will keep a close eye here. They might need a little time to consolidate but have a reputation for continuing to move even when they are overextended.

Solar Screen

SOL* JASO* ENER CSIQ LDK STP YGE* CSUN SOLF TSL*

TSL and SOL both are setting up bull flag patterns over 50 dma. A move through recent highs should get some attention.

JASO and YGE have proved to be some of the biggest movers in recent weeks and I will look for pullbacks in those names.

I will also still look at some of the shippers for day trades. They are extended but can still provide some upside if you keep your time frames very short.

JAX

Massive couple of days! GNK PCX sky rocket!

2009-01-03T10:02:00.005-06:00

The patience we displayed in slowly accumulating some of these positions finally paid off as GNK jumped over 30% in the last two days and a portion of that doesn't even include some of the size we picked up around $12 the days before. I sold my shares around $17 and am all out right now. I was projecting it to go back around $18 before running into big resistance but volatility took out some of my stops and I am happy with the gain. PCX had a huge day and I sold a little. I still have a big position here and think it can easily squeeze to $9 if oil and commodities remain hot when a lot of traders return to the desk Monday. However, as always, I am moving up stops and will be locking in gains as they come in. I am averaged in at right over $6 so I already have 25%+ gains to protect. I am watching other Coal stocks such as MEE and ACI which broke through some resistance levels and their 50 dma on Friday with good volume. Should they continue to get the bid the group should continue to move together and PCX should benefit. I will be curious to see how it acts at the 50 dma at around $9 should it get there.

I am also still holding MTL at a cost basis of just under $4, this one hasn't seen as much action. When I bought it I was projecting a bounce to the 5.50 area but I am setting a couple sell points in the 4.75-5.00 area. I don't want to see this one back below $4.

I am watching a few small cap setups into next week. Along with some very small oils and solars. I will be posting a watch list tomorrow.

edit: oops! Posted SLX instead of XME but they look the exact same.

Chart to support my reasoning...

2008-12-28T22:11:00.000-06:00

Trade starting to gain some traction

2008-12-26T17:53:00.002-06:00

My slow approach to building up positions in some commodity names in the coal, metals, and shipping sectors is started to gain traction and I think should work really nicely once change the calendar and the big boys reenter the game. I was a little bit early as I was trying to put money to work off a bounce in oil around $30. It was bad timing on my part as I lost sight of the expiration of the December contract. Anyway oil had a baby bounce and some of the names I have been playing such as PCX and GNK saw big bounces. Volume was still light across the board and I am not putting too much weight in to the moves but it did show how one positive day in oil can make these prices explode. If OPEC or Russia steps in and does something meaningful money could again pour into these names. The dollar is still basing, consolidating recent gains in the inverse ETF, UDN chart. I think it is set for a move higher in the short term and should supports oil. I don't know for how long with interest rates already at zero but I have a feeling a lot longer than many think with so much of this still to be worked through the system.

I know the posts have been infrequent as of late but look for that to change as we get through the holidays and flipped over to a new year. Once some of the hedge funds reenter the game things could get interesting.

Dollar looks set for a move lower...

2008-12-21T20:13:00.003-06:00

The Dollar looks set for a move lower and I am going to use the light volume pullback in the UDN chart to get long some commodity names. If anyone is interested let me know and I will post my watchlist in the morning.

Simple Consolidation

2008-12-18T19:26:00.003-06:00

We remain in a trading range and the consolidation I’m mentioned two days ago is taking place. I am remaining patient as I look to shift my strategy away from day trading to a form of swing trading that keeps position size small to deal with the unbelievable volatility. I’m being more flexible with my stops on individual positions but will quickly cut my positions should we break support. I'm looking to make some more buys as we inch our way down towards 850 on light volume. I did do a little buying today, picking up a little PCX which was hammered percentage wise but volume was extremely light. I will look to add more if it gets down around $6 but don't want to see it below the 52-week low on big volume. This is not the typical type of chart I like to buy, but this is the sort of play that has been having the most success lately and in accordance with my site name, my style and biggest strength is to adapt like a chameleon to what ever style is giving the best risk/reward at that time. All types of styles work with great success the key to my chameleon style is to know the different styles in and out and identify which one is best fitting the present market. We have been a 100% day trader market for several weeks. I think this is about to change. I may be wrong and I always have stop out points should this be the case. My main stop being below 850 on the S&P on big volume. But if I am right and we do build off this consolidation to break through resistance our profits will be massive. Patient and position size are the keys to making this being profitable.

Good Reaction...Lets see what sticks

2008-12-16T23:30:00.001-06:00

We saw some good action off of the FOMC rate cut decision as well as GS earnings which us pushed us up over 5% on the S&P 500. The one negative is that volume was rather light and we closed right into overhead resistance. This leads me to believe that we will need to fill a little bit before a move higher. Anyway the action has got me shifting my investing strategy. I moving away from the day trading strategy and slowly starting to build positions with a bit looser stops. We should get a little pullback that will allow us to pick up some of our favorite names. The market is still very volatile and we will have to keep our position size very small in order
to deal with the swings. When we get through the 50 dma hopefully volatility will die down and we will be able to get a little more aggressive and get back to true swing trade style.

Trading Range...Dollar Hammered

2008-12-15T18:03:00.003-06:00

We continue to remain in a trading range as the indexes continue to build bases. A lot of news comes out this week and is likely to drive trading. GS earnings tomorrow morning as well as the FOMC interest rate decision will have a major driver of tomorrow's trade.

With the dollar continuing to be hammered I continue to focus on commodity names.

Shippers have remained strong and I bought some ESEA today which I plan to add to if the group remains strong and the stock gets sees some more volume.

2008-12-11T23:40:00.001-06:00

In business, words are words; explanations are explanations, promises are promises, but only performance is reality. --Harold S. Geneen

Select Commodities

2008-12-11T08:17:00.004-06:00

I'm watching for a few plays in commodities that aren't overextended.

DXO the 2x oil etf looks like a pretty good bottom fish. I wouldn't chase here though and would be cautious about taking too much size overnight.

Steels have been very hot recently but most are overextended. One that looks good should it get through $6.00 is MTL. It has a big seller there but should we get an uptick in volume it could run.

Some others I am watching:

Coal
PCX

Gold
AUY

Another Higher LOW??

2008-12-09T18:31:00.001-06:00

Thorough 900

2008-12-09T07:30:00.002-06:00

We had a big day here with all three of the stocks I mentioned over the weekend having big days(BMR, PNX, MIG) and all of them opened relatively flat offering a good entry point. I have already locked in gains and move up my stops to protect the rest of my profits. Be sure to do the same.

Bulls show a little horn. Where will it lead?

2008-12-06T14:01:00.007-06:00

Update: I added a watchlist for next week at the bottom of the post. -JAX

The market is on the verge of taking a direction and a big move seems likely to follow. We had the worst jobs report in over a decade and the government continues to be forced to bailout industry after industry. Market players did however, again buy the negative news and closed us on highs after selling off on the open, testing recent lows around 816 on the S&P. This seems to again have given the bulls the upper hand but this has changed almost daily. If the bulls don't get good follow through on Monday and don't make a push through 900 pretty soon after, momentum will once again reside with the bears. With Christmas right around the corner this is also seasonally a strong period for stocks but at the same time, how many are still holding onto big losses they might want to close out before the end of the tax year.

The question I think many market players is how much worse can the numbers get? Can unemployment numbers continue to climb with all the bailout packages and Obama's
infrastructure stimulus due out next year? The charts seem to be a reflection of this question and the indecision by market players. Right now we are rallying on bad news. Worse news than was expected and worse numbers than what was factored into the market. This can happen if the majority of players think the next number will be better. The question is what happens if we rally from here and the numbers don't get better? It is very hard for me to believe market players will again buy the bad news and maybe that will lead to the ultimate capitulation bottom.

In the meantime, I am going to continue to be reflexive of the action and be very quick to take gains and cut losses should the market move against me. I have a list of longs and shorts I am watching for next week depending on the direction the market takes and will be posting some charts with my rationale for the trade throughout the weekend. I hope all of you knocked out some good trades this week. I had a great start to the week with a mixed last couple of days. This next week should provide some great opportunities to profit if we stay open minded and always prepared for whatever takes shape.

............................................................................

A few sectors that have been seeing a lot of volume and some major improvement in their charts recently are mortgage and insurance related companies and home builders. The catalyst is obvious with the government pledging to buy mortgage backed securities and on Wednesday talks of a plan to bring mortgage rates to 4.5% hit the wires. Many homebuilders saw an immediate lift but mortgage companies and insurers didn't see much of a lift until Friday.

Real Estate/Mortgage Screen:

PLD, NLY, CIM, DRE, NCT, PDN

Alot of those are overextended or heading straight into resistance. I will be watching those to get an idea how the sector is performing overall. One interesting setup that might see nice upside if the sector continues to see bids is BMR.

Insurance Related Screen:

Big movers on Friday: HIG, PFG, LNC, PRU

Better R/R:

HMN- broke through Resistance & 50 dma on Friday...needs more volume
PNX*- good volume on Friday...might be good for a trade if group is acting well, I would keep a very stop and look for big accumulation bars to trade it. Spiked from 2.68 almost to 10 in a three day period after the 10/10 low.

MIG is my favorite looking set up in the group:

Rest up and get ready to knock off some good trades Monday.

JAX

Big Jobs Report in the AM

2008-12-04T21:46:00.002-06:00

Bearish Wedge or Higer Low

2008-12-03T23:20:00.003-06:00

Remaining patient other than some very quick trades in the ETFs. Took some SKF at the close to see if I can get some quick profits off a soft opening. It closed right at support and thought it offered pretty good risk/reward. I will cut it quickly should Mr. Market disagree.

Check my notes on the chart for further insight.

Nice gap for SKF. I am going to lock in half here at 142 up about $8 a share. The S&P is down to support in premarket and I will probably get a chance to reload after the open should I choose.

Volatility Anyone?

2008-12-02T17:38:00.003-06:00

The trading range wasn't as big as we have become a custom to but the rapid shift in sentiment from one minute to the next will leave your head spinning. I took stops on my overnight positions pretty early in the day. I tried to reenter some positions when they started to see a volume reversal but just as quick there was a volume reversal in the other direction. I took the stops again and decided to just become a spectator for the rest of the day. There really isn't much you can do in this unless your time frames are minutes and timing is immaculate. We will get some good set ups soon but I'm not going to try to force trades in this volatile environment and see our recent excellent profits get nicked away.

2008-12-01T18:48:00.003-06:00

We had a pretty big day here with big gains in SCHN and NOV from Friday. CXO lagged a little bit but I will give this one a little more time to roll over as it saw some big selling pressure into the close. I locked in most of SCHN and NOV and will look for a possible reload tomorrow. SKF turned out to be a real winner as well. I struggled to find a low risk add point today but I just let the tracker I had from Friday run for close to 40 bucks a share or 30%.

The price action in the S&P was absolutely dreadful today. The only positive I can see is that volume wasn't as bad as it could have been. I will be looking for a light volume bounce to reload some shorts as it looks like we are set for a new leg lower. However, keep in mind the next resistance levels on the S&P at 800 and 740-750ish. If we see the negative price action continue a long with an up tick in volume I think 800 will be taken out pretty easy. Let's see how we open tomorrow.

Selling on Light Volume

2008-12-01T12:19:00.002-06:00

It has been selling all day right out of the gates without too much dip buying. However, volume has been extremely light on the S&P and it looks like the bulls are trying to hold the 840 level. I don't want to push shorts too much and have taken some quick gains on portions of my shares and just letting the rest run while raising my stops. I am probably going to just wait for the close before I make an more material moves. I am interested to see if the volatile final hour will show its face again or has the market began to calm and show some kind of rationality.

Lower Open, Oil Down Big...Financials should pullback like I have been saying but for how long? Watch Volume.

2008-12-01T08:12:00.007-06:00

Looks like we are set for a much lower open, off about 200 points on the DOW. Oil is getting hammered down nearly four bucks as a write and our shorts in that sector from Friday look to work perfectly. Be sure to move up your stops and lock in gains as they come in. I will be trading around these positions pretty quickly to make sure I lock in gains.

I will also be looking for opportunities to exit out of SKF and EEV on strength. EEV broke through 75 on Wednesday but I didn't cut it because it was holiday trading and I didn't put much weight into the action. Friday saw an extremely light volume bounce and even though it was a half day, this one is starting to look like it is headed lower very soon. The change in the calendar might lead to this as I don't want to get caught wrong footed in an Santa Claus rally. I'm pretty sure we will get a bounce over the next day or two and I am hoping for a bounce to $85 where it might kiss this trading range good-bye. SKF and FAZ looks basically the same to me. I'm setting a sell point for FAZ at around $85 but if strong downward volume hits I will cut the stock quickly. SKF closed below its 50 dma on Friday and I am just going to set a trailing stop below Friday's low and let it run.

If what I think will occur, UYG and other select financials might offer some good pullbacks to get long. A light volume pullback to $4 on UYG would offer up a nice low risk opportunity.

FYI: I saved some of my posts on what I look for in a day trade, and how to play a gap on the bottom right.

Also to be clear, I would not be buying DGP on weakness only on strength. If it falls out of that lower range I would void the trade and give it more time to set up.

Sunday Watchlist

2008-11-30T12:58:00.004-06:00

Fiancee's birthday today so I will try to post some charts I will be watching over the week when I get the chance.

I continue to watch the shorts I posted Thursday and have already started a position in a couple of them.

SKF:

Here is a long I will be watching, DGP:

A lot of Resistance for the week ahead

2008-11-28T13:14:00.001-06:00

Friday Shorts

2008-11-27T11:04:00.006-06:00

I wouldn't be surprised if we get a little continuation on Friday on extremely light volume after Thanksgiving. I will be looking for opportunities to initiate shorts as I expect the rally to rollover next week.

Here are a few I will be watching...

A few from the oil sector:

CXO

NOV

Also looking at the steel sector. Here is one:

SCHN

Many charts are extended in the short term and have similar patterns that offer could shorting opportunities. These are just a few I like because they have the 50 dma as further resistance near by.

Have a Happy Thanksgiving! Gobble til you wobble.

S&P 500 headed into resistance

2008-11-26T18:30:00.003-06:00

PC Issues Solved

2008-11-25T21:05:00.002-06:00

It doesn't look like I missed too much in today's trade. The winners we had from yesterday saw some follow-through and the EEV trade I mentioned this morning would have worked for around $8-10 a share if you were quick. I still feel like this rally is going to rollover soon but the holiday week makes this bear market spike even more difficult to deal with. I am looking to put some shorts on but with more and more traders likely to be away from the desk over the next few days, things could be very whippy on light volume moves. The dollar has been hammered recently and I am going to watch how it plays out as it reaches support levels.

PC Issues

2008-11-25T09:20:00.002-06:00

I am having some major PC issues so I doubt I will be able to trade much today. Stocks are very extended in the short term so it is very hard to find good entry points anyway. I'm expecting this rally to rollover at some point, but one thing is for sure that bear market rallies can go on for a lot longer than you think possible. So I would remain very patient on any shorts. One that is on my radar is EEV. It has support at 75 and I might take a nibble around there and cut my losses quickly if it breaks recent lows.

CSUN & JASO massive gains

2008-11-24T17:36:00.003-06:00

Well it turns out I flipped UYG too early but it played out just as I planned and was happy with my gain. I was watching early on for a reentry but then got caught up with the stocks from the watchlist I posted this morning and never looked back.

From the list CSUN was up as high as 100% at one point in the day and JASO closed the day up over 51%.

Having some technical difficulties so I am having to post from another PC. Here is how I traded CSUN today for those of you interested. Hopefully I will be able to solve my computer problems and get a watchlist out tomorrow morning.

Monday Radar - UYG, Alternative Energy, Infrastructure

2008-11-24T07:54:00.004-06:00

UYG is gapping up like I had planned for and I'm going to lock in the rest of my position here @ 4.32 in premarket.

It might gap and go but I find it unlikely in this market and I will take this opportunity to lock in another 8% on top of Friday's gains.

I will be watching it again with the same mindset as the way I played it Friday. First the volume pattern and price action should it fill the gap and then later in the day should it see a volume surge.

......................

This gap open is going to put most sector ETFs face to face with overhead resistance we broke down out of on Thursday. I am going to be watching to see how much selling pressure is there and be open to play either side based on that action. The obvious play seems to be to short if you keep your time frames short but with the oversold conditions I will be patient as it is very likely many shorts will be squeezed.

For longs, one of the best looking ETFs is FXI which is not gapping on the open. It made a higher low last week and saw strong volume on a good close Friday. So I will be watching a few Chinese stocks should the ETF continue to show strength. VISN is one in particular I like.

I will be also watching solars, Infrastructure, and Wind Energy stocks for a play in similar fashion to UYG. This based off Obama releasing his economic plan.
http://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5hEx3tiPJhZQLVqjNmHR_oP6FZMuwD94KFG5G0
Some of the ones I am watching are:
SOL, CSUN, JASO, STP, CSIQ, SOLR
SGR, FWLT
APWR

Day Trader Market

2008-11-21T19:21:00.004-06:00

I know my posts have slowed drastically recently but that is really because there isn't too much to say. Even after the rally today we remain in a bear market where strength can simply not be trusted. Really the only way to have any success in this market is to be patient for very good opportunities with extremely short time frames. I had tried to post some day trade ideas in the past but I have found that it has been more detrimental than helpful so have refrained since. Instead I will try to post some of my trades and what I am looking for in a quick flip. I'm sure to the day trader type this might be common knowledge, but have found recently that it helps many. So I would appreciate some feedback if this helps any one or if I'm just wasting my time. I have posted today's minute chart below of UYG along with my buy and sell points. I have tried to be as thorough with my thought process as possible I hope it helps.

I decided to hold onto the final third over the weekend in the hopes of another gap open to sell into off of possible C news. Keep in mind while I'm showing one successful trade here, many result in quick stop outs that can nick you up rather quickly. So I try to remain very selective and look for opportunities that I am willing to get aggressive with over a very short time period. A nice gain here, around 20% in less than a hour. Have good weekend guys! Get away from the screens and enjoy a cold one.

Hello New Decade Low...

2008-11-20T16:13:00.001-06:00

CLICK TO ENLARGE

Break of Lows...All Cash

2008-11-20T08:22:00.002-06:00

After testing and testing over and over again, we finally took out the low. I feared this and moved to all cash early into the day on the small positions I had left. Took a few nicks that were frustrating but a part of trading. We now look setup for a new down leg as we finally closed below the trading range on good volume. I don’t know if we will get the big washout many are hoping for due to the fact that we remain so oversold. I wish we would have gotten a little follow through from the November 13 rally to work some of that off but it didn’t happen. I am feeling more likely a slow trickle down on lighter volume similar to what happened at the start of October with probably a few bear market spikes that will be shorted/sold. I am just going to remain very open to the action and see what develops. I don’t see a good risk/reward in either direction right now so I will remain in cash. Maybe we will get some extreme capitulation when Dow Industrial takes out its low. We will see.

CLICK TO ENLARGE

A Final Washout to Come?

2008-11-19T07:28:00.002-06:00

This market remains extremely difficult and I have taken stops on most of my positions and moved backed to mostly cash. This market seems to lack any direction right now except that there is a magnet right around index lows which we can't seem to pull away from. The more we continue to test the lows, the less likely they will be able to hold and then it seems the market might have some direction...down.

Heading Into Tuesday

2008-11-18T07:56:00.002-06:00

The trading environment has remained very volatile and near impossible to build any long term positions. I have used that volatility to trade around a few positions to lower my cost basis. I am surprised we still haven't gotten any follow through off of Thursday. We have good news from some tech companies this morning, HPQ has beat EPS and increased guidance for next year. We haven't heard positive news like this out of a major US company in a long time. If we don't get some sort of rally out of this I'm thinking we are set for another test of the lows and will be cutting alot of my positions. PRGN and EXM are a couple I am thinking of cutting first, both still trading right at my cost basis. There was some bearish news for the shippers out yesterday that stated many shippers do not have contracts locked in past three months. Historically, bulk shippers had contracts locked in more than a year ahead of time. This is especially negative since the collapse of dry bulk rates from all time highs to multi-year lows over the past few months. EXM's ex-dividend date is today so be aware of that.

Add

2008-11-17T09:41:00.000-06:00

Add MTL 1/3 at 5.13

Jim Rogers on Commodities

2008-11-16T22:29:00.000-06:00

http://www.cnbc.com/id/27717135

Friday Recap

2008-11-15T10:39:00.003-06:00

Very volatile session on Friday. I made a few small buys in the early morning on the early dip. The bulls attempted to buy the early morning gap down but the move quickly fizzled out. The rest of the session, up until the late hours, was characterized by further low volume profit taking for those who were able to catch the lows. The averages stayed between 2-4% losses for the bulk of the session until around 1pm when the bulls begin making a late day charge. Volume picked up and I considered adding to some positions but I felt the troops were a bit early with the move and decided to wait for the close. The bulls were able to push us all the way up into the green but ultimately ran into heavy selling pressure in the final half hour. It felt like the days of hedge fund liquidation again as the averages shifted courses abruptly and closed on lows. I'm down a little on a couple positions but all the selling was on light volume, and I have left plenty of room to add should we see further weakness. It is still clear that this is a market you can't buy strength into and the best play is to remain patient, scale slowly into your favorites at low risk spots, and cut your losses quickly if they move against you. Ultimately, I think we will see more moves to the upside next week now that most of the earnings are out of the way and as we look to build off of Thursday's move and the test and retest of the recent low. Even though the averages were down a big percentage on Friday, I thought the action was constructive for much of the day considering the previous day's massive move. The close on lows is the real negative from the day given the pick up in volume in the late hours. So I will remain patient to start next week and continue to watch for a shift in sentiment.

Current Positions:
EXM 9.05
PRGN 4.75
STLD 7.8
SGR 14.55 (avg)
MTL 6.11
CSUN 3.06

buys today

2008-11-14T08:53:00.004-06:00

11:25

The pullback is going a little deeper than I would like but the levels I have initiated positions are holding for the most part. Volume is very light though and I am going to wait for volume to hit before I look to make any more adds. I'm wondering if the troops make a late day charge ahead of the weekend G20 meeting.
..................

add 1/3 SGR 14.05 (14.55 avg.)
In 1/3 MTL 6.11
In 1/3 CSUN 3.05

from list

scaling in slow

Double Bottom?

2008-11-14T06:14:00.006-06:00

Basically exactly what I mentioned yesterday morning ended up happening yesterday. Too many traders pushing shorts trying to take advantage of capitulation action break the October low. A run of stops is hit and then many begin to cover...dip buyers jump in...more shorts try to lock in gains...and then we break back up through the old low and BOOM the buyers jump in...squeeze city...more and more feel left out...and we finish up nearly 7% and reverse almost 100 pts. on the S&P.

Last time we tested this low we had nearly a five day rally. So I am feeling more bullish than normal but I still want to respect the fact that we are in a bear market. I am not buying hand over fist and I am being very patient with entry points and cautious of my position size. I'm thinking there will be some profit taking at the open and give dip buyers a chance to jump in. Where we move from there is a good question with so much economic data coming out, Bernanke speaking this morning, and the G20 economic summit this weekend. I'm gonna flip out the SSO in premarket.

I continue to like the commodity and alternative energy plays. They rallied the hardest of the last test and I expect that trend to repeat itself here. The solars rallied particularly hard last time supported in part by the election. I think this could be a repeat performance as many traders look at the same thing...as well as oil in rally mode.

Here is a watchlist of some of the stocks I watching for a pullback and how they act:

Coal
PCX, ICO, JRCC, FCL

Steel & Metals
NUE, AKS, STLD, MTL, FCX, RIO, TC

Shippers
DRYS, PRGN, GNK, NAT, EXM(ex-dividend Monday)

Solars
CSIQ, STP, YGE, CSUN, JASO, SOL, LDK

INFA
SGR, FWLT, KHD

AG
MOS, IPI, TRA

OTHER
LVS, VISN, APWR,

Remember to stick to your rules, respect your stops, and remain patient. Keep the emotion out of your trades and don't be afraid of locking in gains too early.

Good luck guys.

Holding Thru the Close

2008-11-13T15:01:00.002-06:00

EXM - added back small
STLD - 7.8 (average)
SGR - added near close at 15.05 (avg.)
PRGN - I bought PRGN before the close at 4.75. Reported Earnings and declared a dividend today which held the stock down. I think it will run tomorrow if we continue to rally. A little bit riskier play but big potential.
SSO - 25.80 didn't add at 26.8 but wish I would have. Closed all the way through resistance at over 28.00.

DRYS - sold to early but made good money. Finally got some good volume to support the price move right before the close. I will be watching for another entry here tomorrow. Not the best shipper in terms of dealing with a global recession but makes big price moves.

Question about entry points

2008-11-13T14:15:00.003-06:00

I got a few e-mails asking how I am timing my entry points. I have been watching the SSO ETF today. I was waiting for the low to break and then see how the market reacted to it. When I saw volume pick up after a run through stops and a move back through the low that is when I started picking at a few names, and added as they got more volume.

It might be best to just trade the ETFs as many individual stocks have so many holders ready to sell, no matter where the market is going. Plus a lot of the big price moves aren't being supported by volume causing me to just want to flip them. I will post where I would look to buy SSO if another entry opens up.

I could see starting a little here at 25.8 to trade around. Through yesterday's high of $26.83 and it should see more upside tomorrow but I would wait just before the close to add.

Flipped out the rest

2008-11-13T14:07:00.004-06:00

I flipped out the rest of my shares of EXM and DRYS going into the final hour. Price action just isn't being supported by volume and I'm going to take my gains here. I will look to add back if troops try to bring home a big close. I would rather see a massive sell off though.

The only one I am continuing to hold is STLD for now.